Ludo doesn't have this information so can't disagree with Sieghard IC, but are we sure the messenger who's tracks Sieghard encountered is the same one who came into town?

“Don’t often see riders off the road,” said Hanna, furrowing his brow. “Doesn’t look like they’re headed for the village, either. On this bearing, they’d be headed straight past it.”
Is it possible Sussman sent two out, one of whom was instructed to avoid Painford? If so, we might want to send someone to Ravenskird to intercept them there - unless they're going to Arrow Heap, in which case we're screwed. But the river crossing is the chokepoint.