A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[3SecondCultist]

Sorry, I haven't been paying as much attention to the game as I should have. Doing my catch up with this post, but first impression is that I don't like the idea of suspecting someone for their role name. If the game were set up that way, it would give an advantage to anyone who has read the source material and would make the game really easy to solve (without fake claims).

- I honestly don't have any good reason I can give you. I know I'm town, but I also don't really have anything to point at in thread to convince you of that.
- Out of those 5 names, AV and Dakrsidder. It's mostly process of elimination. Kraken just seems town from posts. I must have missed why you're suspecting him. Xi gets points for being the wagon opposite Persolus for a while. Less confident on Xi than Kraken. I don't really have a feel for the other two this game - Dakrsidder being new plus I don't remember much of what they had for reads. AV has been AV, which hasn't necessarily turned into town points for me.
- of the above names, Town read Kraken due to what I feel are good posts.
- I would have to have reads/a handle on the game for that. No one in particular jumps out at me. I'm keeping an eye on Merel but that will likely resolve soon anyway.

Alright, so I mean based on this post it's probably safe to say Kraken and Cao aren't W/W. It's a soft unpairing, but I don't think a wolf would go this far to alleviate suspicion on a fellow wolf, especially when the one doing the speaking hasn't really been under the microscope. Overall, I read this post as hedgy. Shrugging and saying 'I'm town' means nothing, but there is no real analysis here. They say they're busy, but I am getting a vague gut sensation here.

(Keep in mind that my gut is wrong about 110% of the time)

I've also had quite a busy few days and haven't had the time to get into more solving since my claim. To help those good souls putting in an effort, my general reads list with a few supporting details:

Townreads: Snowblaze (barring a real bastard mechanic, she is cleared for me), Kraken (if he's a wolf, he's been doing a damn good job since the start of the game), Merel (waiting to be resolved, if the powers don't go through she's almost certainly scum), flat_footed (town-cleared by flip), 3SecondCultist (hi).

I need to go back and read through Kraken's posts to figure out what Name he seems to be hinting obliquely at. If I can do that and the pattern holds, it's a good look for him. A softclaim from D1 would do a lot to alleviate my suspicions - since that requires some setup that would be risky for a wolf to pull off - but I wouldn't put it past wolf!Kraken to think that far ahead and anticipate that only about 1/3 of the active players have an in-depth knowledge of Guide as a serial.

Neutral: Caedorus. I believe the Thief claim more now upon reviewing his posts. While the Thief does have a Villain name, it's the kind of role in a mafia game that would best as a Neutral. The Aspects I believe he has make sense from a mechanical standpoint.

Needs further review: Cazero (I can see Caz as a wolf, any chance you want to comment on the evidence you found to exonerate him Snowblaze?) AV, Athedia, Xihirli (someone else do this one please),

Wolfreads: Dakrsidder, Cao, Persolus (may he never return).

Past that point by now, but I'll just say there was another avenue under which you could've gotten an idea of whether Merel was likely town. They mentioned using an attack aspect on Persolus N1, so assuming the 3 minor injuries came from lynch, which flat_footed would know from how much damage he took, then it would've done 1-2 major injuries. From there, it would be finding out how much damage said aspect did and asking if anyone else used one, plus how much it inflicted.

Additionally, I personally think you guys are putting pressure on the wrong people. As far as those in the everyone else pile, I still think Athedia and Xihirli are the most likely to not be wolves. Personally, I'd say Caoim and AV are by a small margin the best options, simply because I can't see a way to attribute even a modicum of town points to them yet. If Kraken claims, I’m the next best option.

A note for posterity: this post feels pretty scummy. At first I couldn't figure out why, but looking back I think it's because it splits up the POE of some of folks' wolfreads into two groups, leaving open some options and telling town to 'put pressure' on them without actually voting for either of the people they claim are the 'best options'. It's a great post for a wolf to point at later and say they drew suspicion to a flipped buddy without actually starting a wagon.

I'll put my vote on Cao now so that there's an actual wagon. If Cao flips wolf, Kraken is likely just town and Dakrsidder will have some explaining to do.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay I read through all of Kraken's posts and I have a super vague, half-formed notion as to what he might be. But I'm definitely wrong.