A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[Let'sGetKraken]

I was attacked at night.

According to you. I'm giving this the same weight I'm giving Athedia's claim - a good deal, but not absolute. Especially if what Caedorus says is true, he took a wound protecting flat last night - meaning that two people were attacked. Very possible in a game where wolves don't have an immediate kill.

I realize I'm supposed to be convincing you not to kill me, but still. It'd be remiss if we treated this as absolute.

Right, let's do this properly then.

Could AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Dakrsidder, Let'sGetKraken and Xihirli please answer the following questions:

- why shouldn't I shoot you? (Don't answer this by claiming, unless you think claiming is optimal anyway. I will declare who I intend to shoot in ~10-14 hours to give time for a claim.)
- which two of the above names do you think are most likely to be wolves? Why?
- do you townread any of the above names? If so, who and why?
- do you suspect anyone outside the above names? If so, who and why?

Don't shoot me because a) I got Caedorus to townside (for now, at least) b) I was able to help validate Cultist's power usage c) I made a mistake D1 but I am town and I am still learning from the experience d) I am being solvy enough to be useful even if you think I'm suspicious and d) I really want to do the dramatic thing later. Three of the five hints I've given pertain to what this dramatic thing is, in a way.

I've given a pretty extensive explanation of my reads. Of those, AV and Cao are really skating by here. Dakrsidder would be my third pick - "let it random D1 when a wolf is on the line" is risky but not above suspicion, especially if there was vote manipulation in play that wasn't sufficient. Xihirli would have meant that wolves were totally unconcerned with a W/W wagon until 1.5 hours before the end of D1, which I just don't see happening.

In regards to your ISO, that last line is why I think Xihirli is town. I think it's very solid logic but I have zero mechanical evidence to back it up.

I think Merel has a deeply suspicious name, and if for whatever Flat isn't healed, she should be the next Yeet.

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Speaking of which, flat? Know you're busy, but anything to report on the boost side?