Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Keltest]

Lets make sure nobody misremembers the document in question.

Spoiler: The Only Thalmor document in Skyrim about Ulfric Stormcloak

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Status: Asset (uncooperative), Dormant, Emissary Level Approval

Description: Jarl of Windhelm, leader of the Stormcloak rebellion, Imperial Legion veteran

Background:
Ulfric first came to our attention during the First War against the Empire, when he was taken as a prisoner of war during the campaign for the White-Gold Tower. Under interrogation, we learned of his potential value (son of the Jarl of Windhelm) and he was assigned as an asset to the interrogator, who is now First Emissary Elenwen. He was made to believe information obtained during his interrogation was crucial in the capture of the Imperial City (the city had in fact fallen before he had broken), and then allowed to escape. After the war, contact was established and he has proven his worth as an asset. The so-called Markarth Incident was particularly valuable from the point of view of our strategic goals in Skyrim, although it resulted in Ulfric becoming generally uncooperative to direct contact.

The document sequentially transitions between talking about Ulfric's value as an asset and the "particularly valuable" Markath Incident, ***resulting*** in Ulfric breaking away from the Thalmor influence/intelligence network.

It definetly is not a smoking gun explanation of the events that happened in Markath. But this isnt a Markath Incident dossier. I believe the evidence leads us to understand the Thalmor had fingers in the Markath Pie.

This was twenty years before the game tho. We dont know how much Ulfric gets to think about his past association with the Thalmor, or the undercover Thalmor agent he stopped talking to. (There's no indication Ulfric knew he was a Thalmor agent either, manipulated by a Thalmor mole that could get close to him.)

The Markarth Incident is useful because it gave them the ability to operate in Skyrim more directly, but theres no indication anywhere in game that they instigated it. The Thalmor are not the only group antagonistic to the Empire in Tamriel, and a big part of their MO is taking advantage of other, unrelated threats to advance their agenda in an area. Its how they came to power, after all.

Of note, the Markarth Incident is where he forms his army and starts acting on his own agenda more directly, as well as surrounding himself with other advisors and the like rather than acting as a lone individual.