WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[AvatarVecna]

The math works better if you don't just look at who got yeeted, but look at the number of the votes. Then you'll know what you actually have to be scared about.

Spoiler: Uncrossed Votes D2

Show

CaoimhinTheCape

bladescape

Bladescape

Persolus

CaomhinTheCape

Persolus

Persolus

[B]bladescape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaomhinTheCape

So bladescape

MerelBlackbird

bladescape

These are the votes that were actually cast:

CaoimhinTheCape (4): corncobweb, MerelBlackbird, AvatarVecna, JeenLeen
bladescape (5): Illven, CaoimhinTheCape, Cazero, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape
Persolus (3): Batcathat, Book Wombat, Lady Serpentine
MerelBlackbird (1): Athedia

Living Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. MerelBlackbird
4. AvatarVecna
5. Illven
6. Lentrax
7. Persolus
8. Cazero
9. Book Wombat
10. Let'sGetKraken
11. CaoimhinTheCape
12. Cuthalion
13. corncobweb
14. JeenLeen
15. Lady Serpentine
16. BatCatHat

So prior to any shifting, that would be:

4 votes on player 11
5 votes on player 2
3 votes on player 7
1 vote on player 3

3-147
4-211
5-92

First black number is the number of votes on that wagon.

Second black number is the player number after it's shifted by the lucky number.

Third white number is the player number before it's shifted.

So prior to shifting, the wagons were:

3 votes on player 7
4 votes on player 11
5 votes on player 2

Which is exactly what I calced above, except for some reason Athedia's vote on Merel didn't get accounted for in flat's write-up at all? That could be Athedia has a power where her vote doesn't count, or that Merel has a power where votes against her don't count (maybe just 1 vote against her doesn't count?), or maybe flat just screwed up. But the other 3 wagons exactly match up with how people voted.

EDIT: flat has since clarified that it was narrator mistake, and has posted 1-10 (whitetext 3). This matches up with 1 vote on Merel (player 3) getting shifted +7 to be on player 10 (Kraken), and now all uncrossed votes are accounted for.

Then they get shifted. The 3 votes on Persolus (player 7) get shifted to player 14. The 4 votes on CaoimhinTheCape (player 11) got shifted to player 2 because 11+7=18, but with only 16 players, it loops around (so it goes 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 1, 2). And the 5 votes on bladescape (player 2) got shifted to player 9.

This matches up with the black text in the end-of-day post. 3 votes on player 14, 4 votes on player 2, 5 votes on player 9. So why did player 11 die instead?

3-147
4-211
5-92

Two exposed wires brush against each other with a small explosion, blinding the group with the sharp crackle of electricity. You can smell ozone in the air as your vision slowly starts to return to you. A fourth line now shows against the cold black of the Securitron's monitor.

13-114

Because the first set is the actual vote count. And then something weird happened and Cao got 13 votes dumped on him that don't match up with anything anyone has said in-thread. There's 25 votes in this vote count, on a day when we only have 16 players and some of them didn't even vote. That's what should be worrying you right now.