WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[JeenLeen]

Murska ISO Part 1 (e.g., # of posts forum lets me put in one post)
A lot of WIFOM.

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I am not a six, I am a number! Wait, how did it go again...

Hi all, been a while

NAI

Right, I'm finally back home.

Going over what's happened real quick, I think Illven hopping third on a wagon this early is a pretty good look, doesn't seem overly self-conscious. Lentrax doing the same on the AV wagon kind of likewise, but that of course takes a very different tone if it happens that Kraken is wolf.

JeenLeen is the first player to start actually playing, so they get a pass from me for day one. As for the analysis, well, thin conclusions on thin evidence, fair for so early. I don't particularly like keeping pocket theories at this point - my read of AV's post was that there's maaaybe a bit of vig cover there, but that'd be no reason to vote at them so I don't know what the reasoning here is.

Athedia's thing seems too complex to be a game-mechanical power directly, but of course it might have some kind of connection. I'd guess it's just fluff, for now.

The Narrator getting busted could be bastard cover, but my guess would be some kind of an actual power used on them. Bastardry automatically makes people suspicious of the narrator slot, so it's feasible someone might go that way especially if they don't have anything better to do day 1. If we later choose to want to speculate on who it might've been - which I don't suggest right now - I have some ideas.



I don't like this post. The answer should be obvious, and even if it isn't, why would you 1: assume Kraken knows any more than the public info 2: want them to reveal it even if they do? It doesn't read like a townie putting actual thought into what happened and why, but rather a stock reaction for the sake of having a reaction.

Anyway, I'd guess if it's a day-vig it's town, if it's a role guesser it's wolf.

Aaand that's about all that's happened I guess.

Townread for me, Illven, and sorta Lentrax.
Would a wolf rather state that to support their scumbuddies, or to try to make us suspect townies as scum?

That he "don't like this post" by Illven makes me... well, it's still a lot of WIFOM. Would he be casting shade on a scumbuddy to distance, or laying seeds to hope a wagon goes on a townie.
If the lead wagon at this time was a wolf, that could be why trying to get Illven. But if then, why not vote her?

I don't get any strong pings off anyone, mostly because most of the thread is a blackjack game. So I think I'm going to start off voting on Let'sGetKraken just in case the AV wagon is someone trying to protect a wolf buddy. I think whatever reactions follow will be better fuel for analysis closer to EoD.

Fake edit: I've been trying to post this for a while but my internet spazzed out on me, and it looks like blade got there first. Still, plenty of time in the day yet.

Is AV a wolf he's trying to save?

Actually doing that, sure. I'm all for people giving their reads, but what are we supposed to look into with Cazero? Elaborate please.

Yeah, sure, but why them specifically? I mean, one vote isn't much of a threat, so you need to convince at least a couple others to join in.

I guess. Kraken's doing some kind of solving at least, and nobody pushed AV to save him earlier, so let's put pressure then. But I'd rather we picked targets with a bit more reasoning - hypocritical of me, but I truly don't have the time to go in-depth today.

Cazero.

Sounds like he's reluctantly voting Cazero. But, given how he stayed on Cazero until EOD, I think that it's likely this is just wolf lies.

"When you have little to go on, you go on little. Not nothing."

"Yes, exactly my point. I'm glad we agree."

Banter with Athedia. NAI. Can't find any reason to think it's two scum bantering with each other.

Well, I'm kind of questioning the purpose of a pressure wagon where we don't first wait for the target to actually be around and write their thoughts.

His answer to me. Good answer, but NAI. Could be justification if Persolus is scum, but as Illven noted, Persolus also got D1 killed last game so I think NAI to Persolus and Murska.

Do you have anything to do with what happened to flat?

NAI. Makes sense for wolves to want to know.

So far no real conclusions. He gave some townleans, but WIFOM makes it hard to use that.

Next one a'comin.

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Next round.
By "NAI" here, I mean more he's doing a good wolf cover as town or it's NAI towards anyone else. No useful intel from this.

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Different special mechanic in play every day based on the number rolled? But for there to be any point we'd have to have ways to interact with it, either through PRs or by learning the rules over time.

NAI. Good point, though; sounds true.

I wish that the people we're pressuring would get here and talk to us. But I guess it's better to target someone who isn't here than someone who is if we don't have any strong suspicions either way.

NAI. Looks towny, but really has no content since no vote shift.

As far as I'm concerned, AV has claimed Vig hard enough that going 'jk' isn't enough and I will vote there if they try to backtrack without a real good explanation.

Hmm....
Feels like setting up reason to try to lynch AV if AV claims non-vig. So i think town points to AV here, but if AV and Murska are scumbuddies, AV just has to not claim otherwise for Murska to not have to vote her. So... frustratingly useless.

Wait, really? We have a vig claim, they can prove themselves by shooting a wolf. If they're a SK, well, we can kill them if they shoot anywhere other than suspected wolves, so they're practically a vig until then. Why would we lynch there today?

I propose we don't aim for claimed town PRs day one. Really wish Cazero would be here to say something, but in their absence they're still a better target than any of the active posters imo. I can't push any wagon above AV anyway.

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Oh, I missed this one.

Specifically, I want two things.

Why should we not kill you today?

Who should we kill specifically, let's say out of Kraken, Cao and AV as people with votes, plural. And why.

Backs off on reasons to kill AV. Wanting to persuade others to keep her around?

Well, that settles it for me. CaoimhinTheCape.

Hey. Look. I won't be back before EoD, there's a wagon on you. If you've got reasoning, give it now. I'm on you mostly because all the counterwagons claim town PR.

Ugh...

well, Cazero sounds the most sus out of all of the claims imo, and also good night everyone.

This makes Cao seem more town at first. Murska was willing to vote him.
Yet he shifts back his vote to Caz.
I could squint this and see this as scumbuddies Cao and Murska planning for this to give a cover reason for Cao to persuade Murska.

Regardless, that the vote ended on Caz clears Cazero. At least unless wolves are Murska, Cao, and Cazero. But I think if that were the case, Murska woulda voted elsewhere than those earlier in the Day.

Conclusion: Cazero town. Some reasons to think AV and Cao town, but I'm not as convinced.

Hoping to re-read Cao, AV, & Kraken before I really consider changing my vote.