WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

Will not vote with the intent of getting Kraken out today. This is the 5th vote on Kraken, when AV was at 3 and Athedia at 2. It's early and there's plenty of other places to vote than pushing a buddy's wagon to 5.

Hmm. I kind of discounted Murska's vote on Kraken since it was so early in the day, but you might have a point (especially since I'm leaning at least a little towards a townread on both AV and Athedia). If Murska was honest about trying to post for a while, he might've missed blade's Kraken vote, but it would still mean pushing Kraken into the lead, at least.

The annoying part of that is that if I choose to trust both you and Kraken for the time being, I'm kind of out of suspects. Jeen's latest post made me a little vary on account of seemingly hesitating to test the voting theory, since even if it's wrong not at least testing it (or finding a better one) seems bad for town, since not being able to vote accurately is almost certainly going to screw us sooner or later.

I suppose I should reread some of Jeen's posts at some point, but at least there's nothing in his vote history that looks particularly towny, so I might as well go with Persolus (JeenLeen).

- - - Updated - - -

"At some point" turned into "right now". It's a pretty shallow ISO, but at least it's all of Jeen's posts in one place if I or someone else wants to get back to it.

As for the ISO itself, I didn't find anything particularly interesting (and I know I'm interpreting some stuff in the worst possible way for Jeen) but at least there's nothing making me regret my vote.

Spoiler: Quick ISO on JeenLeen

Show

Alerting everybody in case someone didn't notice this. Be cautious.

On the #6: if it means anything... I don't think it's tied to the 60 hour day. I reckon 60 hours is the normal 48 + a little bit extra, to make the Day/Night end cycles align with flat_footed's real life preference.
On the other hand, I guess it probably does mean something and perhaps tied to the bastard mechanic or, since it says "game was rigged" maybe we can use it as a clue to find the wolves.


I usually like to have something to really vote on when doing my opening post, but nothing glares at me besides the early Day wagons. So quoting some votes.


Quoting Cao for the votecount.



Then Illven puts a 3rd vote on Kraken.
If Kraken or Illven are wolves, could it mean something? Early Day wagons usually dissipate, so maybe trying to bus a scumbuddy early on but planning to move vote later? An early wagon to yield analysis can be useful, but I'll keep my eye on this.

Cao had put a second vote on Kraken. Eh... I kinda feel similar to how I do about Illven's 3rd vote, but a 2-vote wagon just helps analysis get going.



Mostly quoting this since it's a vote before I posted. (Not quoting, but noting Lentrax also voted AV.)
But, honestly, slight townlean here. I think a wolf would double-check more who posted while they were posting.




And I think a townlean to BCH for finding & posting the dice roll flat made.

---

I'm not liking the Kraken wagon, even though it's early Day so it probably doesn't mean anything.



::squints::
Got a theory. I'll put a 3rd chip on this pile. AvatarVecna.

I could see pointing out the bastard warning as a wolf trying to look helpful. Of course, it could also be a townie genuinely trying to be helpful.

Seems to be seeding suspicions towards several people. Of course, things like that is basically what D1 solving is.

@Jeen: Could you share that theory you spoke of?

This... probably isn't a power usage, but I'd like to rule it out. Yeah, deal me in. Maybe I'll get lucky and draw Exodia on turn 1.

A 16.
Too tired to do the actual statistics. But a 5 or lower, or a face-card, is helpful. That's probably over 50% odds of a better hand. Besides, if I bust, that gives intel.
So I'll take another card. Hit me!



Query: is the Narrator's death not at the beginning due to something, or simply flavor text forgotten until after game start...





Could be a dayvig not wanting to kill anybody today, but wanting to test their power and potentially eliminate some bastardy elements by removing an active Narrator.
If that were the case, I think they'd use it later in the Day, though.

I lean towards this is just fluff flat always planned on posting.

We should see what flavor text is used for deaths/lynches. If "has been busted" has a certain meaning, is the one used for all things, or isn't used again--that might help solve the mystery (or at least give a good guess.)

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Oh--and on fluff for new players/folk not in Rogan's Hivemind: AV said something like "why do folk keep giving me guns". Context: she was the vig last game. (Or, well, essentially. Town powers worked weird that game, but essentially the town vig.)

The part about Hivemind also feels like it could be a wolf trying to look helpful. I think I might just distrust helpfulness in this game.

Oh, sure, Illven gets a 29 but you say it's an 11. I get a <insert addition here> and it's over 21. Suspicious

Serious note: at least so far I've gotten no feedback or noticeable effect from going bust. Though if it's "instantaneous" could be flat hasn't done it yet, or might resolve at Day's end. I'll keep y'all posted.
My guess (if it's not just fluff Athedia is doing for fun): vote manip power.

Card game note: my daughter got a pack of Yugioh cards. She knows I played back in the day, so she asked me if they were any good. I told her honestly that I had no clue as I have almost no idea how the current rules work.

I feel like theorizing about Athedia's blackjack game could be wolfy filler, but that might just be because I assumed her game was just for fun and whether or not I was right about that, disagreeing with me about that isn't necessarily wolfy.

I still don't like the feel of the Kraken wagon. I can see it being a valid one, but something about the steam of it, with so little opposition besides the AV wagon... feels off.
Thoughts/analysis below (and honestly, rereading I do get folk voting Kraken), but I'll leave my vote on AV for now.



Oddly, this post almost makes me okay with the Kraken wagon. I'll assume it's in response to the one post where I did actual analysis.
It's not that he's accusing me. It's that, if he's accusing me of pocketing him, that doesn't seem right; while I wasn't liking the wagon on Kraken, I also suspected him and Illven of being scumbuddies in the same post.

But maybe I'm misunderstanding.



Not liking this. Seems like casting shade on Merel for an enthusiastic post.
While I guess Merel did post some real life reasons she doesn't have any actual analysis to add, and that's what she did last game while truly busy/sick and being a wolf, this feels like a wolf!Illven trying to cast shade to start a wagon on someone.

But Illven didn't move her vote from Kraken to Merel.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel town, seems an odd post to make. No value; some risk.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken wolf and Merel town, seems odd didn't move her vote when she has a justified reason to.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel wolf, makes sense as distancing.
Or it's town!Illven commmenting and I'm getting bad vibes or misunderstanding; such has happened in games before.




I think a townread for this overall. I could definitely see a wolf or neutral saying this, but you'd gotta be a bold wolf to do this lie. But it's, like, such great cover for a wolf not wanting to get scried/tracked. (Or "watched"; i mix up "track" and "watch".)
So that's the WIFOM spiral.



If you are still the lead wagon, please give your theory close to Day's end.

That sounds incredibly interesting.



True, but isn't that how each Day usually goes?
Yet a good point. The AV wagon isn't doing anything.
::looks over who has at least 1 vote already::
Persolus, don't you usually bet on staying past D1 by now?

Seeing one of the players confidently playing Pokemon at the Blackjack table, Jeen walks another to another table. With utter lack of subtly, he lays down a card from his pocket facedown on the table. "I play a trap card facedown." The other patrons and the dealer look annoyed and start calling for security.

Any reason y'all went after Cazero instead of Persolus?
Not that I have reason to suspect one over the other, but I find it curious the wagon grew on a new person (Cazero) rather than someone already with a vote (like Persolus).

If Jeen does turn out to be a wolf, I'd say this makes Persolus looks pretty towny. I don't see a wolf trying to bring attention to a buddy like this.

"Nah, I'm good", says the sir as he slowly backs away from security. He deftly retrieves his Torrential Tribute from the table.



He did? Dang, I'm usually more mindful of that. Well, that makes sense.
Uh, back to AvatarVecna.
Sometimes wolves are willing to be patient D1, as wagons tend to ebb and flow as folk get bored. If AV is a wolf, might've just been playing chicken with us.



Good point, insofar as no reason to shift from Cazero to Persolus at this stage.

I've been busy today so haven't 100% comprehended everything when the wagons were changing, but AV as a lead wagon again has my attention.





Cao's point is a good one.
AV, did you mean that?



Taking what you said as a joke, but I figured you were
1) wolf wanting to set up an alibi for being seen NKing
2) a serial killer with similar motive
3) actual vig and annoyed about it
4) <redacted since if true I don't wanna state it in case the wolves haven't thought of it>

If 1 or 2, you're a good lynch target.
If 3, well, you are a potentially useful townie but, at least likely in your own estimation based on your known attitudes about vigilantes, it's not a terrible D1 lynch.
If 4, bad to lynch you. Level of bad varies on <redacted>.

In Hivemind, you noted I made a post about your role where it summed up to "AV is a role". I realize this is basically the same. What I really mean is I could see you posting what you did as any alignment and many roles.

Rereading your posts, I'm not sure if it sounds like a townie kinda okay with being the D1 lynch, or a wolf/serial killer trying not to be too defensive.



That's a good insight. Does anyone who has played Fallout 3 know if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is an allusion to something?

This post makes me a little suspicious but I don't really know why. Maybe it's that it feels a little filler-y?

Also, I wonder if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is a subtle hint about the voting conditions changing day by day? (Either just by the lucky number or possibly by how it's influencing the vote as well).

Cazero. More to come if I have time before Day ends.

I don't think Jeen would intentionally post after the cut off, regardless of alignment, so I assume the attempt to change his vote was genuine. If he is a wolf, I could see it as Jeen thinking Cao was going to flip and wanting to look towny by seemingly trying to save him last minute (I did something similar as a wolf once).

So, we got Murksa's role flip, but not his fluff or power, right? Or did I miss that?



flat told me my vote didn't count. Too late.
And, actually, I had no vote active. I crossed out my AV vote (in time) before voting Cazero (too late), which meant no vote.

I checked the Lucky Number thread BCH found and see no new roles there. Doesn't mean no RNG was used -- flat might've done it elsewhere this time -- but at least it wasn't here.
https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...ing-Conditions



Do you think you understand the mechanic, and it's this understanding that you like?
Or just the general craziness/bastardry of it -- regardless of deeper rationale?

I'll try to understand Athedia's theory come Day if I'm alive. ::notices the upcoming Day is probably the weekend:: Maybe... the next Day I'll try to understand.



Examples help me comprehend. Could you spell that out for me?



I'm not certain, but I think trying to figure out the bastard mechanic is probably more helpful to town than wolves, at least since they can discuss stuff privately. (If a wolf hadn't died D1, I'd probably be scared the wolves already know... but that seems doubtful now.)

But I don't think we have any data to help us figure out how our Night Actions would be impacted. Assuming nobody used a Day power -- or the day-vig kill on flat (if that's what it was) is outside the normal bastard mechanic since it didn't target a player -- we don't know if Action targets get altered like the lynch did and won't know until later.

Also, it was toDAY's lucky number. Not sure how precise "today" is, but might mean it's just Day, not Night.

I'll be busy most of this Day, but wanted to chime in early that I got nothing useful to share from Night.
To my knowledge, my power worked.
Also -- for D1 vote interpretation -- stating again that flat told me I had no active vote. I crossed out my vote on AV before Day ended, and tried to vote Cazero after Day ended.

I don't think Snow's death tells us much.
For wolflean today, I think I lean Cao. Although I was trying to save him late Day -- thinking a role scry could out a wolf in a lie -- I hadn't thought through how role-scry is traditionally a wolf role (Devil?). Not to say a townie can't have it, but maybe he's a wolf being honest about his power lest he get caught in a lie later on?
And corncob makes a good point that Murska was voting Cazero. No reason to bus a wolf buddy like that D1.

Do we trust Athedia's view of the voting rules?
I'll just do CaoimhimTheCape for now and adjust later if needed for votes to count as should.

If I'm irresponsible IRL, I might do an ISO on Murska later on.
More likely, I'll skim his and the D1 lead wagons to see if anything makes more sense.