WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[AvatarVecna]

Batcathat

AvatarVecna

AvatarVecna

flat_footed

LetsGetKraken

Cazero

Cazero

Illven

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

Cazero

Cazero

LetsGetKraken

Bladescape

This is every uncrossed vote. There are two people who have multiple uncrossed votes, which makes counting trickier.

Here are the wagons, assuming the first uncrossed vote is counted:

Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (2): Athedia, Lentrax
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Cazero (3): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero

1/1/1/1/2/3/4. 13 votes across 7 wagons. Flat's numbers indicate 1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. This is not the situation.

Here are the wagons, assuming the last uncrossed vote is counted:

Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (2): Athedia, Lentrax
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska, CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero
bladescape (1): corncobweb

1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. Flat's numbers indicate 1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. This might be the situation.

1 vote on Batcathat (player 17). 1-17
2 votes on AvatarVecna (player 4). 2-4
1 vote on Let'sGetKraken (player 11). 1-11
4 votes on Cazero (player 9). 4-9
4 votes on CaoimhinTheCape (player 12). 4-12.
1 vote on bladescape (player 2). 1-2

Shifting all votes 6 players down arrives at:

1-2 --> 1-8
1-11 --> 1-17
1-17 --> 1-5
2-4 --> 2-10
4-9 --> 4-15
4-12 --> 4-18

This matches up with flat's numbers precisely, including the white text. It's also worth noting that Cao might've been the winner either from randomly rolling between the two lead wagons, or because his wagon was the first to reach 4 votes.

In any case, this feels like a very solid theory that matches up pretty precisely with the evidence available.