I mean i feel like if we were doing it right there wouldn't be a war - that would be the point of the setup, to make Sieghard (or whoever) the natural consensus candidate, or at least somebody worth falling in line behind.

Carrociolo has the sort of assumed legitimacy of being Sforza's heir (even if unspoken), but I feel like there's no natural follow-up to him... who is below him as the pike commander? And that person has even less legitimacy.

Of Sforza's lieutenants, I find it hard to picture Valdes leading a civil war, and he doesn't have the manpower of himself - though I can imagine Sforza's mercenaries falling in behind him. Sussman and Barbaro will just pick whoever they think would win, and I suspect Al'makir could make things very difficult but perhaps wouldn't- presented with a Fait Accompli, I feel like he would keep on with business instead of trying to overturn the boat.

This would make them all difficult to sway against a leader - i can't imagine having any luck whatsoever trying to get them on our sides against Sforza - but equally I think would make getting them on our side if we had already won easier.