No, it's not; another person already pointed out that The Oracle is regularly caught unawares at the most personally inconvenient of times:
So clearly his future-seeing powers aren't always "on," meaning that he's probably not omniscient. So that is at least one point of evidence in favor of the "It is plausible The Oracle didn't look ahead to see if the Menory Charm was bypassed" theory.
Roy doesn't need any help distrusting Belkar--he had plenty of other reasons both before and after this incident to distrust Belkar. Plus, Roy has no reason to think The Oracle would help him, and the Oracle has outright stated the only reason he deals with people at all is because he pays them. Heck, the Oracle puts Belkar's death "on the record" precisely because he thinks Roy wouldn't believe him otherwise!
Again, for someone accusing others of making assumptions, you're sure making plenty yourself.
No, that's definitely not a fact.