# Forum > Play-by-Post Games > Message Board Games > Structured Games > WW/Mafia Yu-Gi-Oh! 5Ds

## Xihirli

*Spoiler: OP*
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> *Yu-Gi-Oh! 5Ds!*
> 
> _
> Going fast makes me feel alive
> My heart beats in hyper drive
> Do you think you can win?
> Only if I lose
> Just let destiny choose
> 
> ...





*Spoiler: Player List*
Show


AvatarVecna
Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze
Persolus
Allando
Caedorus
Bladescape
Book Wombat
Elenna
Murska
Lady Serpentine
JeenLeen
Fleeing Coward



*Turn One 
Draw Phase Skipped

Standby Phase*

"Jack," the head of sector security said tiredly, the bird design on his suit reflecting in the light.
"There is something I never told you about the day I reached out to you to invite you to leave the Satellite and become the King of Turbo Dueling. I did not reach out to you merely because I thought you would entertain crowds and sell action figures."
"Oh, so you don't just see me as a dancing monkey? I'm so flattered."
"You see Jack, I am a member of the Movement of Iliaster. We are dedicated to keeping the Darkness from sweeping over these lands. We began three thousand years ago, when the Nazca Lines began coming to life and needed _us_ to stop them. We swore ourselves to a force that keeps the world together, the Crimson Dragon."
"It's glue! You swore yourself to magic glue!"
"The Crimson Dragon chose between us all the five that were to bear its mark. The Signers. When you dueled Yusei"
"When he beat me, you mean."
"Ah, yes. The victor is immaterial. What matters is the mark that appeared on both of your arms. Each of you is a Signer, and chosen to defeat the Dark Signers trying to resurrect the creatures within the Nazca Lines, the Earthbound Immortals."
Jack stood and headed out. "'The victor is immaterial,' eh Goodwin? You have absolutely no idea how a true duelist thinks. I'll tell you this much, Goodwin. I'll be going to the satellite after Yusei. But it's not because of destiny or to fight the good fight. It's because Yusei defeated me. I thought the path to power was leaving the Satellite behind and chasing my fame on the turbo duel track. Yusei only ever left home chasing _me_, and headed back right after. It seems I've only grown weaker since I left. So fine, if you want me to go to the satellite and trounce these 'Dark Signers,' that's what I'll do. But it's in pursuit of my own power."
"Jack, in the worldshaping force of the Earthbound Immortals, personal power means nothing."
"Nothing? Spend your life being chased down by those set up to keep the peace. Watch your friends be torn apart by the world around them. Watch your world crumble until you're all alone, and tell me what means more than your own strength. Now if you'll excuse me, Goodwin, I believe I have a few Dark Signers in between me and Yusei."

The Satellite was never beautiful, but what Crow was showing Yusei... the streets consumed in purple fire, whole blocks of housing, such as it was, flattened and abandoned...
"What happened here, Crow?"
"A monster, Yus. A horrible, huge creaturec came from those rifts in the ground. It was following a duel runner... a blue and orange one. The one Kalin made, Yusei."
Yusei flinched. "Kalin? He... is it him? Or someone with his runner?"
"Can't say, Yus. I just had to keep the kids away from that thing. There's not a monster in my deck that could stand up to a creature like that. Not yours either, last I saw it."
Yusei got into his red duel runner. "I've had one important addition since then."
"Wait... Stardust?"
Yusei just smiled and revved up his runner. 
"So... you did it? You finally beat Jack?"
"If what you say is true, this duelist shouldn't be hard to find."
"You're sure you can win, Yusei?"
"No... but if this duelist is trying to destroy Satellite, he'll have to start with me." With a roar of his motor, Yusei drove off into the night. 

*Main Phase One Begins and will end in ~48 Hours*

Begin Voting!

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## Persolus

'lo everyone! I'm Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round!


...on the other hand, you _could_ do so, I just like saying it.
Now according to google's RNG, my first vote is ... *drumroll* ... *Lady Serpentine*!

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## Xihirli

Thanks, Flat!

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## Book Wombat

*JeenLeen*, a dozen and two.

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## Lady Serpentine

So, to copy over from the Discord... 

If Greiger is present, they should claim today. 

Greiger can be immune to recruitment. Wolves do not have a direct kill. Thus, Greiger is safe and the only possible guaranteed clear barring the following circumstances: 

Wolves recruit Jack Atlas. This requires them to out Jack Atlas to kill Greiger. 

Wolves recruit Akiza Izinski and manage to get her lynched. This is often going to be a particularly vicious outcome for town anyway, since she can potentially take a *lot* of people with her depending on how long she's been using her power for, but this also would give her a clear target. (However, see below.) 

Kalin Kessler would die, and randomly blows up Greiger. Nothing to be done about *that* regardless of recruitment status or if Greiger has claimed. 

Immortal Earthbound Aslla Piscu is in play and redirects Akiza to Greiger, with Akiza later dying. Again, nothing to be done about that.  

Earthbound Immortal Ccaryhua is in play and Greiger voted for them and was chosen at random; another instance where Greiger claiming doesn't matter. 

All of these require wolves to have also recruited Yusei Fudo; if they haven't Yusei should be sitting on Greiger. Akiza plays further requira Martha to be recruited, since she should be too. 

Sayer and Blister cannot prevent Greiger's effect, as it does not target.

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## JeenLeen

I like the D1 plan Lady Serpentine thought up.  Assuming there's no gaps in it -- and I haven't had the time to look or am sure I understand the timing of Town vs. Wolf powers enough to analysis it properly -- that she would post such makes me pretty sure she's not the sole wolf we have D1.
I guess she could be and it's a WIFOM trick, but it seems a solid plan a wolf wouldn't unveil.

Also, for any who missed it in the general discussion on Discord, the wolves/cult do NOT have a factional kill power.  It's just conversion by the bad Goodwin.

Plot question: so, in the story, is the Goodwin that sent Atlas after Yusei the baddie leading the Earthbound Immortals, or the dude who wins if he gets a dark mark?  Anyone who saw the show willing to chime in?

For a vote: a D1 on *Persolus* for voting the person doing good analysis in Discord seems fitting.  Yeah, they might not have seen it, and they say it was a RNG dice roll to determine who to vote for, but it's really early D1 so that's good enough for me.




> *JeenLeen*, a dozen and two.


But Des Wombat is my favorite (unbanned) card  :Small Tongue:

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## JeenLeen

I hit the wrong formatting.  Persolus.

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## AvatarVecna

I intend to relax and ****post a lot.

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Eeny meanie miney *Snowblaze*

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## JeenLeen

*@Xihirli*



> On your Main Phase 2: State one possible effect that could target you. You are unaffected by that effect until the end of the Standby Phase.


Would you confirm that this power does indeed resolve on the Main Phase 2 it is used, and thus the person would be immune before the baddie powers activate and resolve?

I know townie powers _usually_ resolve later, and this seems an exception, but I want to make sure.

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## Snowblaze

Thanks for saving me the trouble of deciding who to random-vote, *AvatarVecna*.

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## Rogan

Hello everybody




> So, to copy over from the Discord... 
> 
> If Greiger is present, they should claim today. 
> 
> Greiger can be immune to recruitment. Wolves do not have a direct kill. Thus, Greiger is safe and the only possible guaranteed clear barring the following circumstances: 
> 
> Wolves recruit Jack Atlas. This requires them to out Jack Atlas to kill Greiger. 
> 
> Wolves recruit Akiza Izinski and manage to get her lynched. This is often going to be a particularly vicious outcome for town anyway, since she can potentially take a *lot* of people with her depending on how long she's been using her power for, but this also would give her a clear target. (However, see below.) 
> ...


I want to offer a counter-point to your conclusion (claim today).
If this is done, our enemy will KNOW who can't be targeted instead of having a chance to fail a recruitment.

The advantage of a claim today is relatively minor (removing one player from the list of suspects).
There are no night kills, so no chance of Greiger dying by accident in the night. He might get hit by a power which might kill him later, but the risk is low. Plus, this kill can only actually happen at end of day 2 at the earliest.

So, the very worst case is, Greiger gets tagged by accident tonight AND the player who did so gets converted AND they actually out themselves in using the power to get this kill trough.

So, unless Greiger gets heat TODAY, stay silent untill tomorrow. If you got one of the killing powers, consider not using them tonight to reduce the risk even more. That's especialy true for the 'kill targets after own destruction' power. Tomorrow, Greiger can claim. Night 2, he can receive protection against kills, to prevent a hypotethical converted killing power to take him out.

*JeenLeen*, so there might be a wagon. Plus, if I squint hard enough, praising a plan which (is in general good, but) has some flaws might be a wolf who tries to get some credit for supporting said plan.

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## Murska

So many roles. *JeenLeen*, to ensure the wagon goes full steam ahead early D1.

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## bladescape

*Persolus*

Trying this on for size.

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## Lady Serpentine

Having been looking over the mechanics more... I believe *Rogan* is either our wolf desperately trying to avert a potential nightmare scenario for wolves, or a townie who hasn't thoroughly considered the mechanical implications of this setup. 

In the absence of anything better I like those odds enough to roll the dice on them.  

Will explain the details in a minute, I'm writing them up now.

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## JeenLeen

I usually only get a wagon on me early D1 when_ I_ make a convoluted scheme trying to use convoluted power rules.   :Small Big Grin: 

I get Rogan's point.  I could see a wolf making statements like I made to gain towncred; my only defense is that I don't think a wolf would go looking for flaws or asking others to look for flaws.  If I were the wolf, I'd want that scheme as full of holes as possible and the town trusting it as much as possible.  Even if I had privately already asked Xi about a power interaction and gotten an answer, I don't think wolf!me would then post it publicly.

Rogan's counter-suggestion does have merit.  Either way, if Geiger exists*, he can protect himself N1 from conversion and claim D2 if needed.
However, the real benefit of a D1 claim, in my opinion, isn't that we have an essentially** confirmed townie D1, but that we know who to not target with bad effects.  It makes the Town not help the wolves by accident.
I'm not sure if Yusei should or shouldn't protect Geiger N1.  I don't understand the timing rules well enough, but I think he could target someone else N1 and Geiger N2 and keep Geiger safe from wolves.  Especially if others (like Jack) know not to risk killing Geiger by mistake.Jack knows not to target Geiger.Akiza knows not to target Geiger.Carly knows... well, maybe boosting Geiger is a safe bet to not boost a wolf, but I'm not sure what it'd do.  Protect from all effects?  Let him protect another person, too?  I think Xi said they wouldn't know they are boosted, so likely not an additional person to protect.Misty doesn't waste her scry.Crow can boost Geiger's vote (if wise.  I'm not sure if Geiger should vote D2 onward, due to that one wolf power.)MC knows not to waste their power on Geiger.   *Xi: side question.  If the MC targets someone who doesn't select a target, but they do use a power, would anything be announced?*Yanagi knows not to waste her power checking if he's in play.Blister knows not to waste his power.Martha knows not to target Geiger.


So, while it does give Roman Goodwin knowledge that one player is baned, probabilistically that's not likely to really change who they'd convert N1.  It'd be awesome if the cult fails to convert N1 because they target poorly and hit the one immune guy, but that's a... 1/13 chance if I counted and thought through the math right.
Though if Geiger does think he's likely to get converted tonight due to whatever reasons, I can see them keeping quiet.  

*14 players if I counted right, and 17 power roles.  I'm going to assume he does, but we should remember the only guaranteed Role to be in play is the head cultist.
**I think it'd be super foolish for a wolf to fakeclaim Geiger D1, due to decent odds (13 non-wolf players in play and 16 non-wolf powers in play, so 13/16 chance?) he'd get counterclaimed and lose D1.  Or if we lynch the real Geiger by mistake, with the right powers in play, we can probably keep the cult contained N1 and kill them off D2.  So a Geiger claim can probably (literally due to probability) be trusted.  Though if Misty wants to confirm, I'd probably feel better if the game goes long and we start getting paranoid.

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> Will explain the details in a minute, I'm writing them up now.


If I ninja'd your post by writing mine while you write yours, I'm really glad we know there's only one baddie right now so we don't look like we're in cahoots.  :Small Big Grin: 

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> If you got one of the killing powers, consider not using them tonight to reduce the risk even more.


I'll admit I missed this line in Rogan's plan, and that does make it safer.  I'm really not sure if that's a good idea or not.  It's like asking the vig not to shoot N1.  Probably good advice, but unlikely to be followed.

I guess Akiza is the only one this is really asking not to act N1, and honestly her power just seems too dangerous in general; Jack can control if his power kills someone, so him targeting Geiger N1 only goes bad for town if Jack gets converted.

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## Snowblaze

I'm starting to realise a flaw in my strategy of "not reading the setup".  Having fixed that problem, I think a Geiger claim is decently workable given lack of nightkills, but also wolves not knowing who the unconvertable player is means there's a chance of wasted conversions/a player suddenly becoming confirmed town in lategame could really mess with the wolves' game plan.

So, yeah, imo it's up to Geiger whether or not they decide to claim (and if I am Geiger, I am deciding not to claim).

Also seconding that Akiza should not be acting night one.

Eh, don't really have enough to go on to take the conversation away from mechanics yet, I currently have no reads confident enough to be worth stating.

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## Allando

Affirming I can post in thread

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## Elenna

Ive only skimmed the rules and dont have time to look at them properly right now, but my instinct is that Geiger should wait to claim. At the very least they can wait till N1 before deciding to claim (unless theyre likely to be lynched, of course), which will give us more time to discuss.

At this point Im leaning town on Lady Serpentine. Rogans response to the plan is NAI I think.

Also, Persolus because dueling wagons are fun.

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Whoops, clicked the wrong colour. Persolus

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## Caedorus

...Or the wolf!rogan is trying to find out if there is a Geigner to allow possible fakeclaim later. Or Geigner!rogan is trying to ascertain whether or not to claim. /tinfoil

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*Geiger, not Geigner.

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## Xihirli

> *Geiger, not Geigner.


No, neither of those. 

As for the two questions from JeenLeen currently on the table... read the abilities and don't add things to them.

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## Elenna

> No, neither of those. 
> 
> As for the two questions from JeenLeen currently on the table... read the abilities and don't add things to them.


Well this is what we get for checking how other people spelled it and not checking the OP  :Small Big Grin:

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## CaoimhinTheCape

Alright, so my thoughts so far:

*Lady Serpentine* is clear for Day 1.  I don't think there's enough benefits to the solo Wolf to think through that plan and put it forward.  Unfortunately, that means Ti is a good target for Roman N1 given the strong townie vibes, so we'll have to remember that going forward.




> For a vote: a D1 on *Persolus* for voting the person doing good analysis in Discord seems fitting.  Yeah, they might not have seen it, and they say it was a RNG dice roll to determine who to vote for, but it's really early D1 so that's good enough for me.


Gonna strongly disagree with this reasoning.  If I'm a solo Wolf/Cult Recruiter on Day 1, I'm not doing _anything_ to jeopardize my position.  Roman's goal is to stay alive as long as possible to actually get allies, and that means blending in, not voting out someone who is trusted from the get go.

*Rogan* also feels Town for today for me.  The idea is already out there that Greiger can protect themselves, so the solo Wolf probably figures that they might as well know who not to waste a Night on.  Continues with my thought that Roman wants to stay quiet and live as long as possible, but I don't see Roman sticking their head out to argue the point.



Now that I'm caught up I don't like either of the wagons so far, and in addition to them don't want to vote Lady Serpentine or Rogan Day 1.  I'm gonna be more looking to quieter people overall or anyone coasting to try and get through the day.

Gonna try to start something new with a *Vote: bladescape*


*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Persolus (3): JeenLeen, Bladescape, Elenna
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna (1): Snowblaze
Bladescape (1): CaoimhinTheCape
*No Vote:* Allando, Caedorus, Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

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## Lady Serpentine

So, mechanics time! 

First off: I did realize while writing this up is that Martha being perpetually on Greiger is probably worse than her remaining perpetually on herself (however, Yusei should definitely be perpetually on Greiger). 

Now, moving on: 

The trick to this game is that _wolves cannot meaningfully progress the gamestate_ in nearly every configuration. 

Ordinarily if you leave a cult alone it just keeps growing. This one, though, has a hard cap at five members. 

This means that there are very few situations where wolves can force the game to proceed towards a conclusion if town refuses to lynch in cases where they're not extremely certain. 5/14 is simply not enough wolves to successfully force a lynch anyway. (Crow Hogan cannot double their own vote, meaning that recruiting them doesn't help wolves; that takes it to 9/9 and outs every wolf.)  

Ordinarily this is terrible play, but again, the conditions of this game are _weird_. Town being _able_ to infinitely stall means we are incentivized to; being able to afford to wait until we have the information to effectively guarantee our lynches are wolves is actually a good reason to, so long as we _are_ continuing to generate information... Which we should be, since there are going to be power results, claims, etc. as time goes on. 

The only way I see that wolves potentially _can_ get a win, if town is careful, is by recruiting Akiza Izinski. At that point town is in a bit of a pickle, but it's still not unwinnable, because wolves need some very specific circumstances to be able to set her off and win from it. 

For a start, for wolves to _win_ there as opposed to everyone dying, they need to have recruited Jack Atlas or have removed both Misty and Martha from the picture. 

How bad the various scenarios are for wolves varies depending on how many of them are bound to Akiza; however, as the above implies, so long as Misty is alive, town, and capable of using her powers, and wolves cannot use Jack Atlas to set off Akiza, town can continue to stall indefinitely and remain safe in the knowledge that Akiza will not be set off. Also, so long as Sayer or Blister are alive and town and Martha is alive and town, once Akiza's identity is revealed, she can be rendered harmless by rendering her unable to use her powers or forcing her to target Blister, and then clearing everyone else (even if she is Earthbound Immortal Aslla Piscu, statistically this is true; she has a 50% chance to sneak a link through to Martha's 100% chance to guarantee someone is not linked, or a 25% chance if both Sayer and Blister are targeting her.) 

...on that note, I'm kind of coming to the conclusion that since a town that's on the ball can just drag the game on until we've found the wolves by careful analysis with no time pressure _unless_ Akiza is around, we might want to remove her as a factor entirely. 

This might be illuminating as to why I think Rogan is a potential wolf - because having a confirmed townie is extremely valuable in a situation where we're relying on long-haul analysis (which I think removes almost all risk of an actual town loss from the game, and thus is a good plan), I'm inclined to think of pushing for us to not have one as something a wolf would consider a worthwhile risk.

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Some of you may be wondering why I'm voting in light of that big wall eplaining why _this one time_ it actually is bad to - it's because if we're _not_ all on board with that plan, then we _do_ need to try and play normally.

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## Rogan

Stallimg the game indefinitely is both boring and leaving things to the RNG. If the wolves happen to recruit the right persons, they win. If they get the wrong person's, they lose.

Leaving this aside:
A confirmed townie is very nice and everything. But since our kind of innocent child can't die by accident you are actually advocating to reduce the options for discussion. If he reveals later, you can see if anybody tried to push for them and what kind of arguments they give.
Delaying a reveal is better.

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## Caedorus

> No, neither of those.


Sorry, mobile client, checking the op is a pain.





> Stallimg the game indefinitely is both boring and leaving things to the RNG. If the wolves happen to recruit the right persons, they win. If they get the wrong person's, they lose.
> 
> Leaving this aside:
> A confirmed townie is very nice and everything. But since our kind of innocent child can't die by accident you are actually advocating to reduce the options for discussion. If he reveals later, you can see if anybody tried to push for them and what kind of arguments they give.
> Delaying a reveal is better.


Aside from the noob question of what an innocent child is, I am inclined to agree. Stalling is boring.

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I am nursing a townie feeling for everyone who has spoken yet. If someone who hasn't speaks up now, I get a vote target. Think wisely, wolves.

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I am nursing a townie feeling for everyone who has spoken yet. If someone who hasn't speaks up now, I get a vote target. Think wisely, wolves.

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## Rogan

> Aside from the noob question of what an innocent child is, I am inclined to agree. Stalling is boring.


An innocent child is a role which can use their power to get a public confirmation of being town.

Since Greiger can't be converted (unless he takes this risk willingly), someone claiming this role without getting counter-claimed is either a bold and lucky wolf, or the real guy and nearly guaranteed town.

If we were playing in a game with private communication, having a player who can be trusted would be huge. But we don't have this, so the advantage of an early claim is, in my opinion, neglectable.

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## Allando

> I am nursing a townie feeling for everyone who has spoken yet. If someone who hasn't speaks up now, I get a vote target. Think wisely, wolves.


Ok so my thoughts on the situation:
We shouldn't stall for the simple reason that I want to play to have fun not to win. Even if stalling made town win automatically I'd still not do it. 
I think that *Caedorus* is going to vote me so.

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> If we were playing in a game with private communication, having a player who can be trusted would be huge. But we don't have this, so the advantage of an early claim is, in my opinion, neglectable.


I'm inclined to agree here.
Can someone please inform this noob!me how to quote multiple people in one post? Is it just manually typing "


> person[/I];_the correct code I still need to find out how to get_]" and then later "


"?

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ok lol I had not expected that

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## Caedorus

The ''+ sign

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## Rogan

> I'm inclined to agree here.
> Can someone please inform this noob!me how to quote multiple people in one post? Is it just manually typing ""?
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> ok lol I had not expected that


I'm going to risk someone pointig at me and saying "See, he's pretending to be active and helpful, without actually doing something AI" (Alignment Indicative).


When you are logged in, you shoud habe a "+ Symbol next to the quote button. Klick this, and you will select this post for quoting, without starting to type your reply. When you hit reply or the normal quote later, these other posts marked previously will be included.

The other thing is a feature of this subforum: When you post multiple times in a row, with no other player inbetween, the forum will automatically merge your posts.

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## JeenLeen

> Alright, so my thoughts so far:
> 
> *Lady Serpentine* is clear for Day 1.  I don't think there's enough benefits to the solo Wolf to think through that plan and put it forward.  Unfortunately, that means Ti is a good target for Roman N1 given the strong townie vibes, so we'll have to remember that going forward.
> 
> 
> 
> Gonna strongly disagree with this reasoning.  If I'm a solo Wolf/Cult Recruiter on Day 1, I'm not doing _anything_ to jeopardize my position.  Roman's goal is to stay alive as long as possible to actually get allies, and that means blending in, not voting out someone who is trusted from the get go.
> 
> *Rogan* also feels Town for today for me.  The idea is already out there that Greiger can protect themselves, so the solo Wolf probably figures that they might as well know who not to waste a Night on.  Continues with my thought that Roman wants to stay quiet and live as long as possible, but I don't see Roman sticking their head out to argue the point.


Those are good reasons to lean town on Lady Serpentine, Persolus, and Rogan.   And probably you for stating it.

I'll see what bladescape says.
I sometimes feel bad for who gets the somewhat-random D1 lynch, but he's posted yet said little (good move for the cultist, albeit normal for bladescape early D1).  And he had a good run last game.

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## Allando

> The trick to this game is that _wolves cannot meaningfully progress the gamestate_ in nearly every configuration. 
> 
> Ordinarily if you leave a cult alone it just keeps growing. This one, though, has a hard cap at five members.


even five members of wolf would probably be able to get enough people to get a kill in.



> 'lo everyone! I'm Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round!
> 
> 
> ...on the other hand, you _could_ do so, I just like saying it.


Hello! Don't worry, you're only tied for most anyway! :D
About that, I should probably vote someone more useful but I'm going to wait because why not.



> I'm going to risk someone pointig at me and saying "See, he's pretending to be active and helpful, without actually doing something AI" (Alignment Indicative).
> 
> 
> When you are logged in, you shoud habe a "+ Symbol next to the quote button. Klick this, and you will select this post for quoting, without starting to type your reply. When you hit reply or the normal quote later, these other posts marked previously will be included.
> 
> The other thing is a feature of this subforum: When you post multiple times in a row, with no other player inbetween, the forum will automatically merge your posts.


Thanks a lot! I don't think anyone is going to hold it against you ;)

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## CaoimhinTheCape

I Mean, still think Greiger claiming early is probably better.  Rogan and Elenna don't agree with it, but is there anyone else who would suggest they wait?  I Guess anyone who has posted already would have said something but Even so, a bunch of people just posted a Random vote.

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> I think that *Caedorus* is going to vote me so.


As a heads up, I'm not sure if that vote is going to count, since it's sorta red but also darker than normal?


*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Persolus (2): Bladescape, Elenna
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna (1): Snowblaze
Bladescape (2): CaoimhinTheCape, JeenLeen
Caedorus (1): Allando
*No Vote:* Caedorus, Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

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## Rogan

> I Mean, still think Greiger claiming early is probably better.  Rogan and Elenna don't agree with it, but is there anyone else who would suggest they wait?  I Guess anyone who has posted already would have said something but Even so, a bunch of people just posted a Random vote.


But why? In your oppinion, what's the advantage of claiming early, during day 1?
Claiming at start of night 1 might be helpful, so the claim can be veryfied by the seer (if they think this would be useful, which it might be, since only the original cultist can be found by this scry anway) and every harmful PR can avoid them. I'm not sure if this advantage is important enough. Even if someone targets them, there's a chance it can simply be undone by the nurse as soon as they claim. Or the harm could be prevented by Yusei.



@Book, to try and promt you to talking:
"Akiza Izinski is more dangerous to town than the wolves" True or False? Justify your answer.

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## Snowblaze

I will dredge up a few reads, then. 

Townleans on Lady Serpentine and CaoimhinTheCape.

This post:




> Those are good reasons to lean town on Lady Serpentine, Persolus, and Rogan.   And probably you for stating it.
> 
> I'll see what bladescape says.
> I sometimes feel bad for who gets the somewhat-random D1 lynch, but he's posted yet said little (good move for the cultist, albeit normal for bladescape early D1).  And he had a good run last game.


gave me multiple gut pings: the first part felt kind of pockety/working off someone else's reasoning to avoid having to come up with their own and the second feels over-explainy. (Inevitable caveat: I have a tendency to wolfread Jeen's earlygame regardless of their alignment.)

And noting ftr that Rogan's play so far reminds me of his wolf game, though please don't treat this as anything concrete because my confidence is low to non-existent.

I have more wolfreads than there are wolves, which is quite the departure from my usual D1 self.

----------


## Persolus

> But why? In your oppinion, what's the advantage of claiming early, during day 1?
> Claiming at start of night 1 might be helpful, so the claim can be veryfied by the seer (if they think this would be useful, which it might be, since only the original cultist can be found by this scry anway) and every harmful PR can avoid them. I'm not sure if this advantage is important enough. Even if someone targets them, there's a chance it can simply be undone by the nurse as soon as they claim. Or the harm could be prevented by Yusei.


Well, the main advantage would probably be to get things going? That or he's trying to encourage the Alpha into a fake-claim, so the real Grieger can step forward, but that seems unlikely. I mean why would someone fakeclaim Grieger?

Also @LadySerpentine, I managed to completely miss the entire rules discussion on Discord, so a) thank you for doing that analysis and b) since it was done before the game, the fact that you did such a good analysis and reposted it here isn't alignment indicating.

----------


## Rogan

> Well, the main advantage would probably be to get things going? That or he's trying to encourage the Alpha into a fake-claim, so the real Grieger can step forward, but that seems unlikely. I mean why would someone fakeclaim Grieger?
> 
> Also @LadySerpentine, I managed to completely miss the entire rules discussion on Discord, so a) thank you for doing that analysis and b) since it was done before the game, the fact that you did such a good analysis and reposted it here isn't alignment indicating.


Well... I don't think this will get things going. I mean, what's going to happen? Someone says "I'm Greiger", someone else asks "Anybody going to counter claim?", everybody says "Nope" or some variation of this. There is one confirmed townie and that's it. Nothing more to do about this.
The discussion is happening right now: Should they reveal? When? Why?

As an advocat for Serpentine:I think she posted her analysis after the roles were assigned. So you can treat it as AI, if you feel like it. Just remember, what's AI today might be outdated tomorrow. That's the problem of a cult game.

----------


## Murska

This is the rare sort of game where voting to not lynch would be the smart play. 

Anyway, I'm not here to play smart. But I would like to ask if there's anyone playing who would be okay with getting lynched day one - for whatever reason, for instance that their power is less useful for town than most others?

----------


## Book Wombat

> Sorry, mobile client, checking the op is a pain.


Here's a trick, at the bottom of the page is an option to turn the site into desktop mode. Additionally, the sidebar can be reduced by tapping on the '<<' button.




> This is the rare sort of game where voting to not lynch would be the smart play. 
> 
> Anyway, I'm not here to play smart. But I would like to ask if there's anyone playing who would be okay with getting lynched day one - for whatever reason, for instance that their power is less useful for town than most others?


I wouldn't be the best option, but definitely not the worst.

----------


## Snowblaze

> This is the rare sort of game where voting to not lynch would be the smart play. 
> 
> Anyway, I'm not here to play smart. But I would like to ask if there's anyone playing who would be okay with getting lynched day one - for whatever reason, for instance that their power is less useful for town than most others?


I would advise against answering this question unless you are sure that your being lynched is pro-town. Multiple answers to this question could give wolves a _lot_ of information we really don't want them having.

----------


## Lady Serpentine

Indefinite stalling _is_ the boring option, it's true. 

I think the only townie I'd be concerned _enough_ about getting recruited to want them to sign up to be lynched today would be Akiza. 

As a strong candidate for recruitment tonight, I would ironically like _not_ to be lynched this early. My power has no lasting negative consequences for town and I believe that it's better to have me around as a known plausible-wolf than to have there be nothing to go on whatsoever. 

Adding onto the topic of "Why should Greiger claim _now_?", a Greiger claim early in the game is likely to be more trustworthy; the longer we go without a Greiger claim, the more likely wolves are to risk someone with a more marginal power on claiming to be Greiger due to thinking Greiger is likely one of the roles that didn't make the cut. 

On the other hand, right now Wolves _cannot_ risk fake-claiming or counterclaiming Greiger. It is extremely unlikely that both Sayer and Blister are not in the game; this means that if two people claim to be Greiger, we lynch one, and then if they're town, Sayer and/or Blister target the other (and Blister claims) that night. The next day, we lynch the other Greiger claimant and if we had a Blister, Jack Atlas kills them. Even if a recruitment went off, we know exactly where it was, and have now cleaned up both the alpha and the recruit. 

Also, Sayer and Blister both do not affect Greiger (Greiger's ability does not target), meaning that even if we get a Greiger claim, they should target whoever claimed tonight. If it is a wolf rolling the dice and they got lucky, then unless we got very unlucky and Misty is one of the powers not in the game, we win tomorrow anyway.

- - - Updated - - -

Adding onto that: People do dumb things sometimes. A hidden Grieger could plausibly go "I'm sure I can be immune to something else for one night, right?". An outed Greiger cannot.

----------


## Caedorus

> I would advise against answering this question unless you are sure that your being lynched is pro-town. Multiple answers to this question could give wolves a _lot_ of information we really don't want them having.


This↑




> This is the rare sort of game where voting to not lynch would be the smart play.


I disagree. This is a very easy copout for a wolf; not having to pick someone and then defend that choice.
Considering voting Murska bc no better lead. But there is no Murska wagon so it would achieve nothing.
I'll try to make a votecount now, bear with me.

----------


## Rogan

> Adding onto the topic of "Why should Greiger claim _now_?", a Greiger claim early in the game is likely to be more trustworthy; the longer we go without a Greiger claim, the more likely wolves are to risk someone with a more marginal power on claiming to be Greiger due to thinking Greiger is likely one of the roles that didn't make the cut.


There is exactly one wolf who cant claim truthfuly. In fact, there is exactly one wolf at all, at this point of time.
If we delay the claim into the night? There is still exactly one wolf in the night. It would be extreamly ballsy to try a fake claim. Even without a counter claim, there are multiple roles who could screw with him. Misty can use a scry. MC can target them and it will be public knowledge if they actually did recruit someone. 

Blister and Sayer are not as relevant as you make them seem. Most likely case, their powers are wasted, but won't hurt town. If they realy hit a fake claiming wolf? Asuming I've got the timing right, Slayer makes sure there can be only one recruitment. This one is fairly good, but again, it's not likely to matter. Blister makes sure Blister is going to be target nr 2. That's not that helpful at all.

----------


## Caedorus

Lady Serpentine(1): Persolus
JeenLeen(3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Snowblaze(1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna(1): Snowblaze
Persolus(2): Bladescape, Elenna
Rogan(1): Lady Serpentine
Bladescape(2): CaomhinTheCape, JeenLeen
Caedorus(1): Allando

Everyone voting on a 1-vote wagon (especially Snow/AV), why is that wagon better than one with a lynch chance? Everyone not voting (sorry I didn't count who), do you have reads? JeenLeen/Persolus/Bladescape voters: what are your arguments? Can you convince me? JeenLeen: you are the most voted person. Any defence? You are also the only person yet to change your vote. Why is this person sus?
Just upping the pressure a bit, and gathering reads. I won't vote today (out-of-game day), but based on the answers I might tomorrow.

----------


## Rogan

> Adding onto that: People do dumb things sometimes. A hidden Grieger could plausibly go "I'm sure I can be immune to something else for one night, right?". An outed Greiger cannot.


Hard disagree. A hidden Greiger must expect to get targeted by chance. An outed Greiger will expect to be avoided, so he would be even more likely to take the risk. After all, why would you try to recruit someone who's immune to this?
Hell, an outed Greiger might deliberatly not protect themselves against the recruitment, cause actually getting recruited would highly increase his chances of winning. After all, everybody belives he cant be evil, right?

Greiger using his power to defend against getting a dark signer is something which depends on the person playing this role. Not on being out in the open or not.

- - - Updated - - -




> JeenLeen/Persolus/Bladescape voters: what are your arguments? Can you convince me?


I'm going to answer the second question first: probably not, no. Why?
Well, I don't have a strong case vs Jeen. His positioning about the plan doesn't feel great to me, but that's about all.

Also, I'm reasonably sure I know why Book is voting there: The dice have spoken! Everything else would be highly unusual.

----------


## Caedorus

I personally disagree Greiger should claim; usually, revealing roles is an anti-town move. Seeing as we can't guarantee he wouldn't let himself be converted, we couldn't 100% trust them anyway, so I fail to see Town benefits.

----------


## Lady Serpentine

There is a lot of talk about how things _usually_ are with a highly unusual setup. 

That being said, Rogan does appear to be correct that I was misreading the timings of Blister/Sayer interactions. 

On the other hand, claiming that Blister forcing one of the limited-number recruitments to be on them is useless seems dubious; if they know they did so, they can claim just before they would get recruited (to give minimal time to change to not using that power) and give us a confirmed wolf while denying a more useful recruitment.

----------


## Allando

> Everyone voting on a 1-vote wagon (especially Snow/AV), why is that wagon better than one with a lynch chance?


I don't really have any info so voting semirandom and sticking with it until I have better info is my best option. I will, however, think about everything everyone posted and maybe change my vote later.

I haven't given reads yet I realised, so:
Jeenleen doesn't seem concerned about being on the top of the vote list so Town.
Lady Serpentine could be trying a nice ploy or something but I don't think so. Town.
Persolus was tied for highest and also didn't mind too much, and has also given reads and everything; then again a good wolf might also have done that. Ok enough for now: In The Middle.
Rogan participated OK but has little else. Also In The Middle.
Snowblaze and AvatarVecna are targeting each other; I'd have to reread to get their participation levels but they can't both be wolves so they're Mild Suspicion.
Bladescape _could_ be the wolf but I don't really have a lot to go on. Also Mild Suspicion.
Caedorus: "Nooo please lynch someone!" 
FC (I can't write your name out in full with a straight face, sorry): Probably on another time zone or busy or something. You are at the bottom of my list because I have nothing to read you on, not because I suspect you. No Info.

All I'm willing to say about myself is that I don't want to give the wolves info.
And goodnight everyone, that is it from me for today!

----------


## Murska

> I disagree. This is a very easy copout for a wolf; not having to pick someone and then defend that choice.
> Considering voting Murska bc no better lead. But there is no Murska wagon so it would achieve nothing.
> I'll try to make a votecount now, bear with me.


And yet, I am wagoning regardless. 

I am generally very pro-lynch. But right now we have only one wolf, meaning a very low chance to hit them and also very difficult to catch voting patterns - _and_ information we gain by today's votes are of low value later in the game because people change alignment. Plus everyone in the Town has a power, so mislynches always cost at least something. 

Still, playing the game as an exercise to wring expected value out of mechanics is dull. We're here to lie to each other and catch others doing the same to us, roles are just extra toppings that one could do without.

----------


## Persolus

> Persolus was tied for highest and also didn't mind too much, and has also given reads and everything; then again a good wolf might also have done that. Ok enough for now: In The Middle.


...wait, I gave reads? All I did was point out (potentially invalidly, as Rogan said) that her Discord solving wasn't necessarily AI.

Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!

----------


## AvatarVecna

Dangit I gotta read the setup dont i

----------


## Elenna

On one hand, its true that the D1 lynch is less useful in a cult game, and that in this particular game waiting for a while doesnt give the wolves as much advantage since cults are limited, and itll give us night action results to analyze. 
On the other hand, the night action results will certainly contain some wolf lies, so there most likely wont be any guaranteed wolves to lynch, and the wolves will have more numbers so they can more easily direct the lynch.
(Also, yeah, stalling is the boring strategy.)

TL;DR Im inclined to vote as normal, if only to have more fun, but Im okay with waiting if the rest of town wants to.




> On the other hand, claiming that Blister forcing one of the limited-number recruitments to be on them is useless seems dubious; if they know they did so, they can claim just before they would get recruited (to give minimal time to change to not using that power) and give us a confirmed wolf while denying a more useful recruitment.


But why would Blister use that strategy, when it makes Blister more likely to lose?




> I disagree. This is a very easy copout for a wolf; not having to pick someone and then defend that choice.
> Considering voting Murska bc no better lead. But there is no Murska wagon so it would achieve nothing.
> I'll try to make a votecount now, bear with me.


Theres still a fair bit of time in the day, if you think Murska is the wolf you may as well vote him.
(For the record, this is mostly just general game advice. I think Caedorus not voting Murska here is a little suspicious because wafflewolf, but at least we know they arent wolf buddies so its not as suspicious as it might usually be.)




> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


I agree with Rogan, claiming during the day doesnt really add any more discussion. But I guess it could make sense since you had some votes on you.

Anyways, regardless of whether claiming was the right move or not, Persolus is confirmed town (at least for now, its theoretically possible he might let himself be converted but Im not going to consider voting him for quite a while). I dont have any real suspicions yet, but lets see what happens if we tie up the bladescape wagon.

----------


## bladescape

Someone make me popcorn would you?

----------


## Snowblaze

> Lady Serpentine(1): Persolus
> JeenLeen(3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
> Snowblaze(1): AvatarVecna
> AvatarVecna(1): Snowblaze
> Persolus(2): Bladescape, Elenna
> Rogan(1): Lady Serpentine
> Bladescape(2): CaomhinTheCape, JeenLeen
> Caedorus(1): Allando
> 
> ...


I don't think voting AV is better than any of the wagons, just I also don't feel particularly confident in any of the wagons being a wolf. 

I will almost certainly be switching to a more meaningful vote before EOD; if I had to vote a wagon rn it would be Jeen, but I don't want to break the tie. 

I 'd be happy to vote Murska with you if you like, though. 




> ...wait, I gave reads? All I did was point out (potentially invalidly, as Rogan said) that her Discord solving wasn't necessarily AI.
> 
> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


Can I just confirm this is actually a serious claim and not you doing something fancy as not-Grieger?

(No, this is not me implying that I am actually Grieger and know he's lying. Unless it is, of course.)

----------


## Persolus

> Can I just confirm this is actually a serious claim and not you doing something fancy as not-Grieger?
> 
> (No, this is not me implying that I am actually Grieger and know he's lying. Unless it is, of course.)


Ahhh, i see how that could be misinterpreted. Yes, I said that I am Grieger! and yes I did mean it!

...are you counterclaiming me?

----------


## Snowblaze

> Ahhh, i see how that could be misinterpreted. Yes, I said that I am Grieger! and yes I did mean it!
> 
> ...are you counterclaiming me?


I am not. Hardclaim not-Grieger.

Figured it was best to double-check so a hypothetical lying-wolf-you can't wriggle out of it with "oh, I'm not actually Grieger, I was trying to cover for the real one" or similar.

----------


## bladescape

> Ahhh, i see how that could be misinterpreted. Yes, I said that I am Grieger! and yes I did mean it!
> 
> ...are you counterclaiming me?


Are you sure you're Grieger?

----------


## Lady Serpentine

You should probably double-check. It would be pretty awkward if it turns out you're just Greig, or even only Greig-ish.

----------


## Caedorus

Or if you're greig-err...
Will solve later

----------


## Persolus

> Are you sure you're Grieger?





> You should probably double-check. It would be pretty awkward if it turns out you're just Greig, or even only Greig-ish.





> Or if you're greig-err...
> Will solve later


...is this a joke fest, or a mass counterclaim?

Either way, yes, I am sure that I'm Grieger.

----------


## Caedorus

Joke fest.
*Insert mental picture of quiet d1, with Persolus suddenly rampaging through*
ok, the quietest player has been Fleeing Coward. Have some pressure
- - - Updated - - -




> I don't think voting AV is better than any of the wagons, just I also don't feel particularly confident in any of the wagons being a wolf. 
> 
> I will almost certainly be switching to a more meaningful vote before EOD; if I had to vote a wagon rn it would be Jeen, but I don't want to break the tie. 
> 
> I 'd be happy to vote Murska with you if you like, though.





> Theres still a fair bit of time in the day, if you think Murska is the wolf you may as well vote him.
> (For the record, this is mostly just general game advice. I think Caedorus not voting Murska here is a little suspicious because wafflewolf, but at least we know they arent wolf buddies so its not as suspicious as it might usually be.)


Actually, Murska is still on the table then.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll try striking through my old vote once on pc.

EDIT: Done!

----------


## Snowblaze

*Murska*, then, for now.

Also I made popcorn for whoever wants it. _munches_

----------


## bladescape

> ...is this a joke fest, or a mass counterclaim?
> 
> Either way, yes, I am sure that I'm Grieger.


I'm going to give you one more chance to not cc me.

- - - Updated - - -




> *Murska*, then, for now.
> 
> Also I made popcorn for whoever wants it. _munches_


I'll have some.

----------


## Allando

> ...wait, I gave reads? All I did was point out (potentially invalidly, as Rogan said) that her Discord solving wasn't necessarily AI.
> 
> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


OK I think of "reads" as expressing your opinion on some people.

OK your claim does spice things up. Interestingly, I think this might be more annoying to the wolf: try to convert you? Don't ? Maybe later?





> ...is this a joke fest, or a mass counterclaim?
> 
> Either way, yes, I am sure that I'm Grieger.


Joke, definitely joke. 
I am not Grieger and I also don't believe you. But that's OK, we'll find out soon enough.
The reason I'm not sure I believe you is because you left yourself plenty of JK room, only then to hard claim *after* nobody countered, and you also seem to be afraid of a counterclaim.

- - - Updated - - -




> *Murska*, then, for now.
> 
> Also I made popcorn for whoever wants it. _munches_


I'll have some popcorn as well, I'm quite amused at how this is going.
I definitely had a productive night!

- - - Updated - - -

Forgot to actually vote Persolus.
It took me forever to make that red!

----------


## Lady Serpentine

To be fair, this _is_ a Xihirli game. 

"Four or more people were told they are Greiger" is just a possibility you have to check.

----------


## Caedorus

> OK I think of "reads" as expressing your opinion on some people.
> 
> OK your claim does spice things up. Interestingly, I think this might be more annoying to the wolf: try to convert you? Don't ? Maybe later?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joke, definitely joke. 
> I am not Grieger and I also don't believe you. But that's OK, we'll find out soon enough.
> ...


Why. Persolus is our best guess at a townie. Why.
Can I ask for an updated votecount from someone thx.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I want popcorn too!

----------


## AvatarVecna

Would it be a bad move to say I have an info power?

----------


## JeenLeen

I was going to reply to some posts asking about my defense, but I already gave it here



> I get Rogan's point.  I could see a wolf making statements like I made to gain towncred; my only defense is that I don't think a wolf would go looking for flaws or asking others to look for flaws.  If I were the wolf, I'd want that scheme as full of holes as possible and the town trusting it as much as possible.  Even if I had privately already asked Xi about a power interaction and gotten an answer, I don't think wolf!me would then post it publicly.


But that's kinda moot now that we have a Geiger claim and counterclaim.  Not completely moot as I'd still rather not die, but there's more important things to discuss.
I voted bladescape because (as I think I said) some posts but little content could look wolfy in this game.  As someone pointed out, I hedged by post with "this is kinda normal for bladescape" and "at least he got a good play last game".  Which is sincere (regardless of my alignment), but I get why it could look suspicious.  I probably wouldn't have said it if I was more worried about looking wolfy, but the setup of this claim makes me a little more loose-lipped D1.

As far as my powers go, I won't claim (at least yet), but my death would be... middling bad for Town?  I'm not Akiza, but I don't think it'd be terrible if I die D1.
I have to run for a few minutes then focus on a work project, but I hope to reread Persolus and bladescape to see who looks iffier to me.  I think we should probably lynch one of them today, but not sure if I want to stay on bladescape now.
I could see some scenarios where a town!bladescape is fakeclaiming Geiger... pondering...

----------


## Snowblaze

> Why. Persolus is our best guess at a townie. Why.
> Can I ask for an updated votecount from someone thx.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> Also, I want popcorn too!


Persolus is only "our best guess at a townie" if he hasn't been counterclaimed. bladescape is implying that he's Grieger.

Help yourself! _holds out popcorn_

Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Persolus (2): bladescape, Allando
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Bladescape (3): CaoimhinTheCape, JeenLeen, Elenna
Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze
Caedorus (1): Allando
Rogan (1): Lady Serpentine
Not voting: Fleeing Coward

I believe.

----------


## JeenLeen

> To be fair, this _is_ a Xihirli game. 
> 
> "Four or more people were told they are Greiger" is just a possibility you have to check.


While... not 100% out of the question, I think we should assume no bastard mechanics unless explicitly told (which we haven't been) or evidence.
Well, one thing I could see if that maybe the wolf was told a role they could fakeclaim.  I _think_ that would have been mentioned in game setup if it were true, but I can see it being possible the wolves have that intel but the town aren't told they have that intel.
If it happened to be Geiger... well... that'd be an unfortunate setup.

I'm glad we know that bladescape and Lady Serpentine can't both be wolves D1.

----------


## bladescape

I like the smell of ccing as wolf in the mornings into instant death. Really livens the day.

Need Persy's reply to my reply to his reply.

Otherwise we'll be in replycation.

----------


## JeenLeen

If we do kill the wolf D1, and Xi and AV are okay with it, I propose we Fiber Jar this game and start over with a new role assignment and D1.

----------


## Elenna

Okay, wait. So if blade is serious, we have a claim and counterclaim. Which is more likely to be fake?

If Persolus lied, that means the cult leader reacted to a little pressure (he wasnt even the lead wagon at the time of the claim) by suddenly putting himself way more in the spotlight, knowing that there was a high chance of a counterclaim. You could argue he could try to pass it off as a joke, but honestly, he explicitly said he was Grieger, he ought to know that nobody will believe that as a joke. The best result for him is he dies tomorrow, having made one wolf who must now survive on their own. Worst result for him, wolf team loses immediately. This makes no sense as a plan.

If blade lied, though, he did it already knowing there was a counterclaim, and he had no pressure on him beforehand. And the result is still the same - wolf team either loses immediately or goes into N2 in a terrible position.

If you forced me to choose between them, Id vote Persolus - theoretically, this could be a newish players panic reaction to getting some votes D1. It would be a bad reaction, but its theoretically possible that he overestimated the likelihood of his getting lynched, and thought the best he could do was fake claim and live long enough to cult someone??

TBH, though, my real reaction is that neither of these options makes enough sense. My guess is theres some third option - either something bastardy is going on (although I dont think Xi said this was a bastard game?) or someone is pulling some clever scheme.
As such, *Ill remove my vote for now* - Ill definitely vote for someone by EOD, although it might not be between those two, but Im hoping for more info to explain the claims first.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, Im dumb, I forgot there was actually a blade wagon before both the claim and counterclaim. I still think blade is too good of a player to react to pressure this way, but it does increase the chance that blade is the one lying a little.

----------


## JeenLeen

I also removed my vote for vote.  (Struck through older vote.)
I have some speculations, but sharing them before Persolus replies won't help and might hurt.

EOD (end of day) is a little over 8 hours away, right?
I don't want to miss voting due to misreading the time zones or something like that.  Eh, why risk it.  bladescape feels fishy, but *Persolus* feels fishier.

----------


## CaoimhinTheCape

[QUOTE=Rogan;25655973]But why? In your oppinion, what's the advantage of claiming early, during day 1?/QUOTE]

I don't see any difference between claiming Day 1 vs Night 1 and I'll just piggyback on what other people said about town not wasting powers on them.  That said, the point is kinda moon now that we've got two claims (or one claim and a very strong implication of a counter claim).




> I have to run for a few minutes then focus on a work project, but I hope to reread Persolus and bladescape to see who looks iffier to me.  I think we should probably lynch one of them today, but not sure if I want to stay on bladescape now.
> I could see some scenarios where a town!bladescape is fakeclaiming Geiger... pondering...


Highly disagree with voting one of them today.  We pick wrong, we lose Greiger.

I see more reason for a town or two to fakeclaim Greiger, as opposed to a solo wolf who is dooming themselves to lose outright or only be able to recruit one person before Misty gets an investigation at Night.  Best way to sort this out is through investigations into either for the next Night or two, if you don't trust them, rather than lose our guaranteed town.

unvote: bladescape

Elenna and Snow are both now people I don't want to lynch today, in addition to the people I listed in an earlier post.    In order to give us more options: *Vote: Book Wombat*


*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Persolus (2): Bladescape, Allando
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Bladescape (1): JeenLeen
Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward, Elenna

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd

*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Persolus (3): Bladescape, Allando, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward, Elenna

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> EOD (end of day) is a little over 8 hours away, right?


Yeah, I have 8.5 hours (or around 6:26 EST)

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## JeenLeen

> I see more reason for a town or two to fakeclaim Greiger, as opposed to a solo wolf who is dooming themselves to lose outright or only be able to recruit one person before Misty gets an investigation at Night.  Best way to sort this out is through investigations into either for the next Night or two, if you don't trust them, rather than lose our guaranteed town.


I'm not persuaded to not lynch one of them, but I do see your point.
I recommend everyone not openly speculate on why a townie might fakeclaim.  If one of them is a wolf, I want them to think up their own reasons instead of being able to piggyback on one of our ideas.  (I have a post written up with several possible (albeit the majority unlikely) scenarios that I'm waiting to post until Persolus has replied and maybe bladescape replies to the future reply.)

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## Caedorus

Ok someone quote blades counterclaim bc I'm not seeing it.

If blade actually counterclaimed, please give ideas what to do (with regards to where roles should terget), bc I'm so confused.

As for me, I think Persolus would be the genuine one by rights of dibs. Not yet giving up hope of a Murska elimination, but I agree voting either pers or blade is stupid - 50% greiger chance? At this point, we shouldn't be looking for wolves, but for "not greiger".

I am also in favor of Fleeing Coward if I can get people motivated.

*crunch crunch*

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## CaoimhinTheCape

> Ok someone quote blades counterclaim bc I'm not seeing it.
> 
> If blade actually counterclaimed, please give ideas what to do (with regards to where roles should terget), bc I'm so confused.
> 
> As for me, I think Persolus would be the genuine one by rights of dibs. Not yet giving up hope of a Murska elimination, but I agree voting either pers or blade is stupid - 50% greiger chance? At this point, we shouldn't be looking for wolves, but for "not greiger".
> 
> I am also in favor of Fleeing Coward if I can get people motivated.





> I'm going to give you one more chance to not cc me.


That's the best we have right now I believe, with Blade implying that Persolus' claim is counter to what blade is.  (though, blade would be able to clear this up better, though blade seems to be waiting on Persolus for the moment).

Murska is an option for me as well and the wagon does have a couple votes, but I'll also be around enough to move where I'm needed.

As for Fleeing Coward... I'm a little hesitant there mostly because FC hasn't played too much lately and most likely is just too busy to post so far.  It could be that the only Wolf is afk but ehh.

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## JeenLeen

I want to give Persolus the benefit of the doubt for not responding yet (work, sleep, real life, etc.), but if he stays quiet long enough, it looks suspicious as a wolf who is in trouble not wanting to dig the hole deeper.

Like, it's been less than 3 hours thus far since blade's last post (if I read timestamps right), so no heat for silence right now.  But I do want to nudge him to talk when he's able.

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## Persolus

> I'm going to give you one more chance to not cc me.


Good morning! Yes, I said I'm Grieger. It's interesting, though, you weren't the one I was expecting to counterclaim me, but if they don't want to elaborate on it I'll let them be?

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## Allando

> Why. Persolus is our best guess at a townie. Why.


Because in my opinion, he isn't. Especially the counterclaim.




> Would it be a bad move to say I have an info power?


Perhaps. Then again, there is no nightkill. 




> I'm not persuaded to not lynch one of them, but I do see your point.
> I recommend everyone not openly speculate on why a townie might fakeclaim. If one of them is a wolf, I want them to think up their own reasons instead of being able to piggyback on one of our ideas. (I have a post written up with several possible (albeit the majority unlikely) scenarios that I'm waiting to post until Persolus has replied and maybe bladescape replies to the future reply.)


True. I just want to point out that the second one who claimed is probably town: the first one claimed, then the wolf counterclaimed? Unlikely.
Now I'm going to reread to see who actually claimed first because I actually forgot.

*Spoiler: my dumb confusion of two people's names:*
Show




> I wouldn't be the best option, but definitely not the worst.


I can't for the life of me find where Bladescape claimed  :Small Confused: ? He wouldn't've posted this if he were Greiger, would he?


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Ohh I got ninja'd. Well, my point rests: that does sort of counter *Bladescape's* supposed claim.
I'm changing my vote because Bladescape looks a ton more suspicious in light of this. Feel free to explain why I shouldn't, if you wish.
Unless I got ninja'd _again_ with a vote, the status is as current:
Lady Serpentine(1): Persolus
JeenLeen(3): Book Wombat, Rogan, Murska
Snowblaze(1): AvatarVecna
Persolus(2): Bladescape, Jeenleen
Rogan(1): Lady Serpentine
Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
I'll go strike through my previous vote now.

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*I am an idiot please do not look at my post quoting Book Wombat instead of Bladescape*

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## CaoimhinTheCape

*@Allando*

I think you're getting Book Wombat and bladescape confused.

bladescape is the one counterclaiming, but you have a quote from Book Wombat and then list yourself as voting against Book.

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## JeenLeen

> True. I just want to point out that the second one who claimed is probably town: the first one claimed, then the wolf counterclaimed? Unlikely.
> Now I'm going to reread to see who actually claimed first because I actually forgot.
> 
> 
> I can't for the life of me find where Bladescape claimed ? He wouldn't've posted this if he were Greiger, would he?


As Cao posted, bladescape hasn't technically claimed but strongly implied he plans to.
And I agree it's be extremely odd for the wolf to counterclaim, especially this game.  If it wasn't a cult game, I could see it if the real townie could completely cripple the wolves (as _maybe_ Geiger could be feared to, but I don't think 1 confirmed townie is that bad.)  I definitely don't see it worth getting lynched D2 and losing your ability to expand the cult.

I'm going to wait to post my speculations until I see bladescape's post.  If his post makes mine moot, I'll probably still post it in a spoiler.  Mostly just because I don't want the time writing it to be for naught.

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_Ninja'd as well_

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> Good morning! Yes, I said I'm Grieger. It's interesting, though, you weren't the one I was expecting to counterclaim me, but if they don't want to elaborate on it I'll let them be?


One new speculation... Persolus hinting he's not actually Geiger but expected to force someone else to counterclaim by fakeclaiming?
He wrote, "I *said* I'm Greiger" (bolding mine).
Hmm... if that's accurate, I think posting who he thought Geiger is would be helpful.  At least, Persolus, please share if you are up for lynch near EOD.

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Thinking more.  If you aren't Geiger, maybe best not to post who you think it is.  If bladescape is Geiger, no harm done.  If bladescape isn't, you maybe outted the real Geiger when they hope to stay hidden.
Or... dang... this is hard to think through.  I'll be quiet until one of Persolus or bladescape say more.

I think, regardless of what Persolus says, I'm still inclined to lynch him.

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## Murska

Hm. Two people claiming the same role - kill one, then the other. *bladescape*.

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## JeenLeen

That was NOT meant to be striked-through.  But I'll not edit it since we avoid editing stuff we posted.

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"That" being the last-minute add-on to my prior post.

Murska, why after bladescape?  What's your read on his thought process?

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## Elenna

> True. I just want to point out that the second one who claimed is probably town: the first one claimed, then the wolf counterclaimed? Unlikely.
> Now I'm going to reread to see who actually claimed first because I actually forgot.
> 
> Ohh I got ninja'd. Well, my point rests: that does sort of counter *Bladescape's* supposed claim.
> I'm changing my vote because Bladescape looks a ton more suspicious in light of this. Feel free to explain why I shouldn't, if you wish


Im confused - what is it that youre saying counters bladescapes claim?

Heres the sequence of events:
1. Persolus claims Grieger



> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


2. Blade hints repeatedly that hes counterclaiming (he hasnt explicitly said so yet) and asks for confirmation of Persolus claim



> I'm going to give you one more chance to not cc me.


3. Pers repeats his claim 



> Good morning! Yes, I said I'm Grieger. It's interesting, though, you weren't the one I was expecting to counterclaim me, but if they don't want to elaborate on it I'll let them be?


If you think the second claimant is more likely town, you should be voting Persolus. (Although Im still not convinced we should vote either of them today.)




> Ok someone quote blades counterclaim bc I'm not seeing it.
> 
> If blade actually counterclaimed, please give ideas what to do (with regards to where roles should terget), bc I'm so confused.
> 
> As for me, I think Persolus would be the genuine one by rights of dibs. Not yet giving up hope of a Murska elimination, but I agree voting either pers or blade is stupid - 50% greiger chance? At this point, we shouldn't be looking for wolves, but for "not greiger".
> 
> I am also in favor of Fleeing Coward if I can get people motivated.
> 
> *crunch crunch*


So youre saying you think the wolf is more likely to be the one counterclaiming? Can you elaborate on your logic for that?

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## CaoimhinTheCape

> Hm. Two people claiming the same role - kill one, then the other. *bladescape*.


*Vote: Murska*

Yeah, I don't like that.

*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (2): Book Wombat, Rogan
Persolus (2): Bladescape, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape
bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward, Elenna

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## Murska

> That was NOT meant to be striked-through.  But I'll not edit it since we avoid editing stuff we posted.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> "That" being the last-minute add-on to my prior post.
> 
> Murska, why after bladescape?  What's your read on his thought process?


Persolus already has votes, so if we want those two to be wagons, blade needs some votes too. 

I don't think I need to bother trying to figure out what he's thinking. If there's a true 1v1 counterclaim situation, then the obvious solution is to lynch into it until we find a wolf. If there's a villager ccing a villager for whatever reason, then presumably their reasoning has taken into account that the obvious thing that will result is both getting lynched - it had better be a good plan, whatever it is.

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As for the people voting on me, I'm *Carly Carmine*. So basically I add a bunch of potentially interesting chaos into the mix, but am not particularly important.

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## Snowblaze

I am. Mildly confused. But I don't think we should kill either of the Grieger claims today. I'm reasonably confident both bladescape and Persolus are town. 

Though seconding that Persolus should probably talk about the person he expected to counterclaim and his reasoning for that.

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## JeenLeen

> Persolus already has votes, so if we want those two to be wagons, blade needs some votes too. 
> 
> I don't think I need to bother trying to figure out what he's thinking. If there's a true 1v1 counterclaim situation, then the obvious solution is to lynch into it until we find a wolf. If there's a villager ccing a villager for whatever reason, then presumably their reasoning has taken into account that the obvious thing that will result is both getting lynched - it had better be a good plan, whatever it is.


Good reasoning.




> As for the people voting on me, I'm *Carly Carmine*. So basically I add a bunch of potentially interesting chaos into the mix, but am not particularly important.


I appreciate this claim.  Us knowing a booster really is active can help interpret possible odd power interactions and help prevent misinformation when interpreting power results.
I think this is one of the few roles that claiming likely doesn't greatly change the likelihood of the claimant getting culted.  Like, could be useful, but not too dangerous as a townie and not too useful as a cultist.  So a safe claim to make, and (barring a counterclaim) lets us trust you aren't the sole cultist D1.

Now let's just get two counterclaims for Carly.  :Small Big Grin: 

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> I am. Mildly confused. But I don't think we should kill either of the Grieger claims today. I'm reasonably confident both bladescape and Persolus are town. 
> 
> Though seconding that Persolus should probably talk about the person he expected to counterclaim and his reasoning for that.


Agreed.  I think it's quite likely both are town, but I can definitely see Persolus' last post as a wolf realizing they made a desperate move unncessarily and trying to safely backtrack into "no, I'm not claiming Geiger.  I was just trying to help via <convoluted scheme>.
I lean town on bladescape.  The wolf counterclaiming does nothing good for the wolves.  I guess unless they *really* think the original claimaint is lying, but I see no reason for wolf!bladescape to think Persolus would be lying.

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## Persolus

> *I* *M*ean, still think *G*reiger claiming early is probably better.  *R*ogan and *E*lenna don't agree with it, but is there anyone else who would suggest they wait?  *I* *G*uess anyone who has posted already would have said something but *E*ven so, a bunch of people just posted a *R*andom vote.


So yeah, my Grieger Counter is beeping like _crazy_. Also, @JeenLeen, I meant the "I said" as to verify what I did say in the first post about it: I am Grieger. Like, it says "You are Grieger" in my discord and everything.

...but the fact that Cao is voting the person who voted Bladescape's (presumed) counterclaim? Obviously he trusts Blade's reasons somehow?
Wait.
Luna, Leo? Is that you?

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## JeenLeen

My speculations, with addition for latest Persolus post.

I think I found all of Persolus and bladescape's post thus far.




> 'lo everyone! I'm Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round!
> 
> 
> ...on the other hand, you _could_ do so, I just like saying it.
> Now according to google's RNG, my first vote is ... *drumroll* ... *Lady Serpentine*!


Not much, but I posted my reasons against it and why I initially voted Persolus.
If he's town, honest.  If he's cult, well, cult is against her plan I reckon OR real RNG.




> *Persolus*
> 
> Trying this on for size.


Basically NAI, but I also posted why it looked a tad iffy in this game.   Good "participating but under radar" for D1 cult leader.




> Well, the main advantage would probably be to get things going? That or he's trying to encourage the Alpha into a fake-claim, so the real Grieger can step forward, but that seems unlikely. I mean why would someone fakeclaim Grieger?
> 
> Also @LadySerpentine, I managed to completely miss the entire rules discussion on Discord, so a) thank you for doing that analysis and b) since it was done before the game, the fact that you did such a good analysis and reposted it here isn't alignment indicating.


Makes sense for town!Geiger to say.  Could also make sense for a wolf wanting to set up some reasons to fakeclaim... but, again, fakeclaiming seems so odd/fool-hearty in this game, unless you are counting on WIFOM "no way a wolf would do that" (and/or know no Geiger in play) to save you.




> ...wait, I gave reads? All I did was point out (potentially invalidly, as Rogan said) that her Discord solving wasn't necessarily AI.
> 
> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


*CLAIM*




> Someone make me popcorn would you?


Setting up his counterclaim, as he knows something is going to happen soon.




> Ahhh, i see how that could be misinterpreted. Yes, I said that I am Grieger! and yes I did mean it!
> 
> ...are you counterclaiming me?


Clarifying.  If he was a wolf, this could be a chance to back off, but he didn't.




> Are you sure you're Grieger?


Setting up counterclaim.




> ...is this a joke fest, or a mass counterclaim?
> 
> Either way, yes, I am sure that I'm Grieger.


Not backing down. 




> I'm going to give you one more chance to not cc me.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> 
> 
> I'll have some.


This makes me think it's either Persolus cult (or townie wanting to die?), bladescape is Geiger, or bladescape is townie planning to die.




> I like the smell of ccing as wolf in the mornings into instant death. Really livens the day.
> 
> Need Persy's reply to my reply to his reply.
> 
> Otherwise we'll be in replycation.


I _think_ this is bladescape saying he wouldn't do something like counter-claim when he's a wolf, since he knows it'd get him killed.
Could be bold wolf using WIFOM to protect himself, but sounds sincere.




> Good morning! Yes, I said I'm Grieger. It's interesting, though, you weren't the one I was expecting to counterclaim me, but if they don't want to elaborate on it I'll let them be?


Heavy on the claim OR setting up to say "yes I claimed but I was lying all along--lying to help Town"
As I already noted, could be legit, could be trying to backtrack safely and avoid getting killed D1.


And here we are...




> If Persolus lied, that means the cult leader reacted to a little pressure (he wasnt even the lead wagon at the time of the claim) by suddenly putting himself way more in the spotlight, knowing that there was a high chance of a counterclaim. You could argue he could try to pass it off as a joke, but honestly, he explicitly said he was Grieger, he ought to know that nobody will believe that as a joke. The best result for him is he dies tomorrow, having made one wolf who must now survive on their own. Worst result for him, wolf team loses immediately. This makes no sense as a plan.
> 
> If blade lied, though, he did it already knowing there was a counterclaim, and he had no pressure on him beforehand. And the result is still the same - wolf team either loses immediately or goes into N2 in a terrible position.
> 
> If you forced me to choose between them, Id vote Persolus - theoretically, this could be a newish players panic reaction to getting some votes D1. It would be a bad reaction, but its theoretically possible that he overestimated the likelihood of his getting lynched, and thought the best he could do was fake claim and live long enough to cult someone??
> 
> TBH, though, my real reaction is that neither of these options makes enough sense. My guess is theres some third option - either something bastardy is going on (although I dont think Xi said this was a bastard game?) or someone is pulling some clever scheme.


::nods::
I agree.  Below are the ones that seem plausible to me, with reasons in italics for why some don't quite make sense.

Persolus cult leader.  Claims.  Got counterclaimed.  _But not seem good to claim.  Elenna mentioned how this would possible_bladescape cult leader.  Sees claim and counterclaims to get Geiger lynched.  He'll get a convert N1, and hopes to survive somehow / accepts being lynched and hopes the next wolf carries the game.  _Not a great plan.  Maybe if very desperate to see Lady Serpentine's plan be foiled._One of them thinks they have a bad town role but still wants to play Town, and is willing to die.  So fakeclaim to confirm/out the real Geiger.  I could really see this is one of them is Akiza.  If this is the case, I could definitely see it as Akiza!bladescape wants to force Lady Serpentine's plan (the Geiger-claim one, not the indefinitely-wait one) and is willing to die.Bastard mechanic makes it safe to fakeclaim Geiger.  Persolus wolf.  bladescape playing some game to test the claim. _Requires hidden bastard mechanic._Bastard mechanic makes it safe to fakeclaim Geiger.  Persolus fakeclaims (not knowing it's safe) to get intel for town, force the real Geiger's hand, or draw attention away from real Geiger.  bladescape counterclaims (as wolf) knowing its safe, hoping to get Persolus lynched and become a confirmed townie.  _Requires odd action from Persolus and hidden bastard mechanic.  I don't want this to be true._Maybe some plot where one of them is the neutral thinks this would help them, but probably not.  _If real Geiger is lynched, the other is gonna get killed, so why would cult convert them?  Don't think this would help them win.  I mention this point mainly because I haven't thought through how that neutral role would play and maybe there's some way this would help them._Both players are not-Geiger townies hoping to accomplish something good by fakeclaiming/confirming the real Geiger and are messing each other up. _I'm just going to assume this isn't the case.  Though it's funny to imagine a very confused real-Geiger silently watching this._

Of course, it could be something else, but those are the scenarios I can think of.
If someone does claim Akiza D1, I can see lynching them.  The cult might not convert them due to likelihood they get killed by lynch or something else, but Akiza does make an excellent cultist.  If bladescape or Persolus retract their Geiger claim and instead claim Akiaza, I especially see lynching them as it covers removing that risk factor or would get a lying wolf who backed off from counterclaim pressure.




> I see more reason for a town or two to fakeclaim Greiger, as opposed to a solo wolf who is dooming themselves to lose outright or only be able to recruit one person before Misty gets an investigation at Night.  Best way to sort this out is through investigations into either for the next Night or two, if you don't trust them, rather than lose our guaranteed town.



I think that, if both are town, one of them will back off well enough before EOD that we would avoid lynching the real Geiger.  At least, unless the one up for lynch is not Geiger and wants to die.
If we lynch the real Geiger, we know to lynch the other person as 1) wolf doing an odd/desperate move, 2) a townie who kinda deserves it, or 3) the neutral doing some odd scheme.   Yeah, I don't think we can stop the N1 conversion in that case, but if the MC/Announcer role exists we can know who gets converted and lynch them D2.  Even if the MC/Announcer is the one who gets converted, the announcement is public and I don't think they can stop it.

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## Elenna

> So yeah, my Grieger Counter is beeping like _crazy_. Also, @JeenLeen, I meant the "I said" as to verify what I did say in the first post about it: I am Grieger. Like, it says "You are Grieger" in my discord and everything.
> 
> ...but the fact that Cao is voting the person who voted Bladescape's (presumed) counterclaim? Obviously he trusts Blade's reasons somehow?
> Wait.
> Luna, Leo? Is that you?


Huh.

Caoimhin, care to explain? Because my first thought at this point is that youre the wolf seeding evidence for a potential future fakeclaim, but subtly enough that you planned to not use it if anyone counterclaimed.

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by counterclaimed I mean claimed Grieger first

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Also @Persolus if you have a guess about who is a particular town role, its often better to not say anything so as to not tell the wolves.

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## Snowblaze

Yup, confirming the Caoimhin thing was what I noticed, and that's why I initially asked whether Persolus's claim was serious (and why I gave them a townlean earlier). Persolus, did you claim as a result of seeing that soft?

And yeah, Caoimhin needs a pretty good explanation for that and then not hardclaiming Grieger if they don't want me to vote for them

Kind of tempted to claim Carly for the memes, but also I'm not Carly and fakeclaiming as town without good reasons is bad.

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## JeenLeen

> So yeah, my Grieger Counter is beeping like _crazy_. Also, @JeenLeen, I meant the "I said" as to verify what I did say in the first post about it: I am Grieger. Like, it says "You are Grieger" in my discord and everything.
> 
> ...but the fact that Cao is voting the person who voted Bladescape's (presumed) counterclaim? Obviously he trusts Blade's reasons somehow?
> Wait.
> Luna, Leo? Is that you?


Ninja'd by latest post./
So, Persolus, you claim you are the true Grieger, and you think wolf!Cao was setting up a fakeclaim?  Or suspect he's one of the twins?

I don't like you publicly drawing attention to a possible pair of Lovers.  Seems an odd move for a townie, but maybe potentially reasonable given all the confusion around.
I guess I could see Cao as a wolf.  He spoke enough to participation/draw attention in real discussion that he wouldn't seem like a wolf laying low, but he's mostly said non-controversial things that wouldn't draw heat with how the discussion was going.  And he posited that the main actors likely were Town, which is a good thing for a wolf to do to get towncred and also point attention away from himself.

So Cao looks fishy.  Persolus also looks at least a little fishy.  I think bladescape looks the best out of all three currently.
I'll leave my vote where it is for now, as I want to hear what Cao says.

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_edit: didn't mean to have that Ninja line in there.  I starting writing this a while ago and didn't post it then, but forgot to drop that._

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I started typing up some more "if he flips X, then we should do Y", but it got too convoluted with three people.  I definitely think one of Persolus, bladescape, and Cao should die today.

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## CaoimhinTheCape

Well, I was going to stay quiet but yeah.  I'm Greiger (as well?).  I hid my claim there and wanted to wait a bit, make sure it was a good idea to claim before actually saying it out loud.  

Then, once we had two other claims I figured I would keep quiet again when neither Persolus nor bladescape actually voted each other right away (as you would normally do for cc's).  Let our Seer sort it out and either get a Wolf from the investigation or just figure out what was up with that.  Meanwhile, I stay quiet and hopefully Wolves waste a night conversion on me and get nothing.

Now that Persolus mentioned the lovers roles, I think it makes sense that either of them could fake claim in the hopes of scaring off a Wolf conversion, since worse comes to worst, they would have someone be able to bail them out of the lynch.  If we have two "Greigers" out, Wolves probably won't chance a 50/50 on going for either of them (when they assume one is the real Greiger).  We essentially have two Townspeople unlikely to be converted, cleared when Misty investigates them, and the real Greiger still hidden to hopefully spoil a night of conversion for the Wolves.

So yeah, I stand behind both of them and don't want either dead.  Misty can investigate tonight and call out a Wolf if she finds one but I'm confident that Persolus and blade are Town and none of us "Greigers" should die today.



*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (2): Book Wombat, Rogan
Persolus (2): Bladescape, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Murska (3): Caedorus, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape
bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Elenna
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

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## Persolus

> Also @Persolus if you have a guess about who is a particular town role, its often better to not say anything so as to not tell the wolves.


Main reason I'm bringing that up in particular is that lynching them kills both, but leaving them be could only get one of them converted.

That or I'm completely off, but if I'm completely off, then so is the wolf.




> Yup, confirming the Caoimhin thing was what I noticed, and that's why I initially asked whether Persolus's claim was serious (and why I gave them a townlean earlier). Persolus, did you claim as a result of seeing that soft?
> 
> And yeah, Caoimhin needs a pretty good explanation for that and then not hardclaiming Grieger if they don't want me to vote for them
> 
> Kind of tempted to claim Carly for the memes, but also I'm not Carly and fakeclaiming as town without good reasons is bad.


I claimed because I am Grieger! I didn't actually look at the quoted post in detail until well after it was posted, and it wasn't the cause for my claim. 


So at the moment I see a few possibilities:
the two are Lovers, and are trying to pull something because they have a guaranteed claim to fall back on? Again, I'm willing to say this because this is _not_ a normal game. I have learned enough to know that calling out lovers is a bad idea when the wolves will just get a two-for-one special, but right now, that means we end up with three confirmed townies?

Cao is a wolf, as suggested, and tried to set things up in case things went wrong. Again, why? Since there's only one wolf, this is way too bold of a play to make when there was still massive debate over whether or not to claim. Also, why then would Cao vote Murska for furthering a wagon on Blade? 

Blade is a wolf. This is actually not implausible, given as he hasn't actually claimed yet, and could be just testing Cao (if he noticed the capitals) and/or I? However that same argument could apply if he was actually town.

Regardless, at least one of them has to be town.

----------


## JeenLeen

So Persolus is staying with the Greiger claim, too.   We have two Greigers.  I assume bladescape is a townie doing some testing since he just strongly implied a claim.  (bladescape, if you are the wolf, I hope you're enjoying the show.)




> Well, I was going to stay quiet but yeah.  I'm Greiger (as well?).  I hid my claim there and wanted to wait a bit, make sure it was a good idea to claim before actually saying it out loud.  
> 
> Then, once we had two other claims I figured I would keep quiet again when neither Persolus nor bladescape actually voted each other right away (as you would normally do for cc's).  Let our Seer sort it out and either get a Wolf from the investigation or just figure out what was up with that.  Meanwhile, I stay quiet and hopefully Wolves waste a night conversion on me and get nothing.
> 
> Now that Persolus mentioned the lovers roles, I think it makes sense that either of them could fake claim in the hopes of scaring off a Wolf conversion, since worse comes to worst, they would have someone be able to bail them out of the lynch.  If we have two "Greigers" out, Wolves probably won't chance a 50/50 on going for either of them (when they assume one is the real Greiger).  We essentially have two Townspeople unlikely to be converted, cleared when Misty investigates them, and the real Greiger still hidden to hopefully spoil a night of conversion for the Wolves.
> 
> So yeah, I stand behind both of them and don't want either dead.  Misty can investigate tonight and call out a Wolf if she finds one but I'm confident that Persolus and blade are Town and none of us "Greigers" should die today.


I begrudgingly admit that that makes sense.  I think a wolf would find it risky to seed a fakeclaim early, as it could be detected (as it indeed was) and there's no need to seed it early in this game unless you expect to be counterclaimed, and counterclaiming as a wolf is extremely dangerous D1.
On the other hand... if I squint hard, I can really see a wolf!Cao doing all that, coupled with his initial posts about how the wolf would lay low D1, as a not-too-bold gambit to survive D1.  I'm sure wolf!Cao would be annoyed at being discovered, but the path Cao is taking is probably the best route to success possible if a cultist: buy time.  And time is brought with ignorance, so us leaving the others alive and using potentially-nonexistent info-gatherers to gain intel is a relatively safe bet for wolf!Cao to make as well.

I'll think more about where it makes the most sense to vote, but I'm going to success that The Announcer or Jack target one of those three.  If The Announcer targets but nothing is announced, then it might clear the real Greiger.  If Jack happens to select the not-real Greiger, it makes it easier to kill them later on.  I think neither Jack nor the Announcer should claim until D2, if even then.  (Well, really just Jack.  The Announcer doesn't need to claim for his info to get shared.)

Of Persolus and Cao, I think Cao looks fishier now:
*CaoimhinTheCape*

- - - Updated - - -




> Regardless, at least one of them has to be town.


I could actually see bladescape as a neutral in this case.   Don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.

----------


## Caedorus

> I Mean, still think Greiger claiming early is probably better.  Rogan and Elenna don't agree with it, but is there anyone else who would suggest they wait?  I Guess anyone who has posted already would have said something but Even so, a bunch of people just posted a Random vote.





> ...wait, I gave reads? All I did was point out (potentially invalidly, as Rogan said) that her Discord solving wasn't necessarily AI.
> 
> Also, I don't like the way the game is headed, so here's something for everyone to work with: I am Grieger!


So cao made his greiger hint right before pers claim. Too... Much... WIFOM...

I kinda trust Persolus because it is in theme with what he usually does - I can see Rogan convincing him Greiger should claim - also, he continues to insist he's Greiger. Not a smart wolf move.

Gaah WIFOM

Are mafia games usually this intense d1?

And Murska claimed, and someone *might* be cc'ing Pers but maybe just saw cao's hint.

Ok I now think Murska is town but I still don't want to risk Greiger-lynching.

Although... Actually, with at least one cc, killing Greiger would not be so bad - eliminate Greiger, get a wolf free!

CaomhinTheCape

Not making the mistake again of trying to strikethrough old vote.

----------


## AvatarVecna

Maybe the real Greiger is the friends we made along the way.

----------


## JeenLeen

If both Cao and Persolus are claiming Greiger heavily, one of them is the wolf.  Or maybe the neutral, but let's assume the wolf.

If Jack and The Announcer are both in the game, I think we've won if either Cao or Persolus is cult.
This does not require either role to claim D1.  But I think this is good reason to lynch one of Cao and Persolus.
SCENARIO 1: We lynch the wolf.  We win.
SCENARIO 2: We lynch Greiger.  Announcer targets wolf.  Jack targets wolf.  We know who got converted and lynch them.  Jack can kill the original cultist via voting for him.  (If Jack gets converted, lynch the fakeclaimer then lynch Jack the next Day.)  _This requires Jack to claim D2, so we know the wolf is getting killed via that vote and the lynch is free to go elsewhere.  But we win, so that should be fine._

If we include scenarios where one is neutral and the other Greiger:
SCENARIO 3: We lynch the neutral.  We trust the other is the real Greiger.  
SCENARIO 4: We lynch Gregier.  As scenario 2, but it turns out to be the neutral who gets killed by Jack.

Other scenarios are possible (both townies? wolf and neutral both fakeclaiming Greiger?), but I don't think they are likely, so ignoring those.
If no announcement and no Jack claim, we still win in SCENARIO 1.  In 2/4, we lynch the other claimant D2 and (if we don't win) know there's 1 cultist left.  In 3 (worst case for town), we proceed with the game.
Letting them both live just gives the cult time to grow.

If bladescape also heavy claims Greiger... well, shucks, this is strange.  Kill 'em all.

----------


## Rogan

Good evening. Seems like I've missed quite a bit of show.


Persolus, are you still claiming Greiger, or would you like to step back now?

Right now, I'm leaning town on all three Greigers, maybe less on blades than the other two.

I don't know Mursak enough to judge if his "Kill one, than the other" comment is something town!Murska would say. Claimed, so not interested in killing there.

I don't like Jeens recent post. I kind of get it, but I don't like it. Probably will stay there with my vote.

Oh,and hardcaim not-Greiger.
By the way, I think Persolus might have gotten his idea by reading my posts about how an early claim would not generate discussion. Two early claims absolutely do.

----------


## Elenna

Im so confused.

At this point Im torn between theyre probably all town* because why the heck would a cult leader do this D1 and maybe if we kill them all we can get some actual answers. 
Still deciding if I want to lynch inside the Grieger claimants or not. If we do, Id like to lynch Caoihmin - it seems more likely for a wolf to hint at being Grieger rather than a more obvious claim, and Im not a huge fan of his not counterclaiming earlier.

*Technically Rex Goodwin is also an option but claiming Grieger seems like a particularly bad move for Rex since their goal is to be culted

- - - Updated - - -

Also hardclaiming not-Greiger, for the record.

----------


## Allando

> *Votes:*
> Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
> JeenLeen (2): Book Wombat, Rogan
> Persolus (2): Bladescape, JeenLeen
> Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
> Murska (2): Caedorus, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape
> bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
> No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward, Elenna


I had actually striken through my Bladescape vote and wasn't voting, but in light of recent events, I'm voting again! Persolus might be powerwolfing (or trying to) though, but for now... *Bladescape* 




> Well, I was going to stay quiet but yeah.  I'm Greiger (as well?).  I hid my claim there and wanted to wait a bit, make sure it was a good idea to claim before actually saying it out loud.  
> 
> Then, once we had two other claims I figured I would keep quiet again when neither Persolus nor bladescape actually voted each other right away (as you would normally do for cc's).  Let our Seer sort it out and either get a Wolf from the investigation or just figure out what was up with that.  Meanwhile, I stay quiet and hopefully Wolves waste a night conversion on me and get nothing.
> 
> Now that Persolus mentioned the lovers roles, I think it makes sense that either of them could fake claim in the hopes of scaring off a Wolf conversion, since worse comes to worst, they would have someone be able to bail them out of the lynch.  If we have two "Greigers" out, Wolves probably won't chance a 50/50 on going for either of them (when they assume one is the real Greiger).  We essentially have two Townspeople unlikely to be converted, cleared when Misty investigates them, and the real Greiger still hidden to hopefully spoil a night of conversion for the Wolves.
> 
> So yeah, I stand behind both of them and don't want either dead.  Misty can investigate tonight and call out a Wolf if she finds one but I'm confident that Persolus and blade are Town and none of us "Greigers" should die today.


I like how you assume Mesty is even in the game. This plan falls apart otherwise.




> Maybe the real Greiger is the friends we made along the way.


I like this one

- - - Updated - - -

I, too, wish to specify that I am not Greiger. Fyi.

----------


## CaoimhinTheCape

> I could actually see bladescape as a neutral in this case.   Don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't rule it out.


The Neutral in this game (Rex Goodwin) has the win condition "get converted by Roman Goodwin".  It doesn't make sense for that role to present themselves as someone who can't be converted.  (As Elenna already pointed out).




> Although... Actually, with at least one cc, killing Greiger would not be so bad - eliminate Greiger, get a wolf free!


How do you figure you're getting a free Wolf?  If 3 people are all claiming a role, there's at least 1 townsperson who decided to fake claim it.  And if it's the case where the claims are Lover1/Lover2/Greiger, then lynching any of us means you're possibly taking out 2 townies.




> I like how you assume Mesty is even in the game. This plan falls apart otherwise.


There are 17 roles possible and 14 players.  I'd be surprised if the Rolecop was cut.  It also still works when, at the end of the Day, a lover could stick their neck out for their partner if it comes to that.  On Day 1, Wolves aren't paired and the only reason someone would push to save each other is if they are Luna/Leo.



If there's a better chance of voting out JeenLeen than Murska, I'll *Vote JeenLeen*.  Don't have strong feelings either way: Murska's claim might be a fake claim of a role that is less likely to be actually in the game or just, you know, the truth.

But at this point I'm happier with anyone over myself/blade/Persolus so if my vote needs to change, it will.



*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape
Persolus (1): Bladescape
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Murska (1): Snowblaze
bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Elenna, JeenLeen, Caedorus
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

----------


## Murska

If a townie decides to fakeclaim, then they have nothing to complain about when it gets them lynched. If the Lovers both decide to fakeclaim the _same_ role, doubly so.

----------


## Snowblaze

Okay. I'm pretty confident that bladescape is both town and not Grieger. (He counterclaimed me as vanilla town once, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw the Caoimhin soft and decided to try and cover for them.)

And I don't think either Caoimhin or Persolus is both lying and town. Which means one of them is our wolf. 

If Persolus is a wolf, he panicked under pressure and decided tio take a chance on Grieger not being in the game, not noticing the Caoimhin thing until it was too late and then not seeing a way out.

If Caoimhin is a wolf, they decided to soft Grieger so that if no-one else claimed D1 and it looked like Grieger wasn't in the game they could fakeclaim and get away with it, but if not they could just hope no-one noticed and not fakeclaim. Only then Persolus, bladescape and I messed up that plan and now they also don't see a way out.

Eh, aorn I think *CaoimhinTheCape* is more likely to be the wolf. Counter-arguments appreciated.

----------


## Caedorus

> If a townie decides to fakeclaim, then they have nothing to complain about when it gets them lynched. If the Lovers both decide to fakeclaim the _same_ role, doubly so.


At the expense of pocketing, this. Hah! Not ninja'd!
Also, on pc now, struck through votes.

----------


## JeenLeen

> If a townie decides to fakeclaim, then they have nothing to complain about when it gets them lynched. If the Lovers both decide to fakeclaim the _same_ role, doubly so.


Yeah.
I think Persolus would claim Lovers if he was a Lovers instead of pressing the claim.

Of the three claimaints, I think we have a wolf/neutral, the real Greiger, and a townie who is trying to out a wolf and doesn't mind dying for me.  My money is on bladescape being Akizu or a middling-useful role.
But I still say kill bladescape if both Persolus and Cao flip town and one flips Greiger.

----------


## bladescape

I am Greiger. Hard claim

I am also confused. Hard claim.

----------


## Snowblaze

> I am Greiger. Hard claim
> 
> I am also confused. Hard claim.


I counterclaim confused. This game makes No Sense.

If you're town and fakeclaiming Grieger, can you please stop doing so at once?

----------


## Elenna

No, youre both lying, its me whos confused!  :Small Tongue: 

Actually though, I was really expecting at least one of our claimants to have retracted their claim and explained why they were fakeclaiming by now

*Xihirli* can you confirm if we have at most one of each role in the OP, or if there might be repeats?

----------


## Rogan

> I am Greiger. Hard claim
> 
> I am also confused. Hard claim.


Well... That's not the result I had expected. I thought you were bluffing.
But in light of two hardclaims...

*TheCape* since his claim was hidden and was made public by someone else.

Also, yeah... I think we are ALL confused.

----------


## JeenLeen

> I am Greiger. Hard claim
> 
> I am also confused. Hard claim.


KILL EM ALL!

Very confused here as well, and quite entertained.
If none of them are the cultist, then I think we're going to lose because the cult gets a free couple days as we figure this out.  But we kinda deserve to lose if that's the case.

I'm going to be offline until Day ends.  I also don't want to die and think we need to kill one of the claimants.  So I guess it's time to kinda claim.
I claim The Announcer or Jack Atlas.  I want to keep some info from the cult, so not gonna say which until D2.  Other Role (if you exist): I don't think you should claim now, but I'll post this Night which of the surviving claimants I'll target so you can target the other.  
That way we should both (if we're both still town) be able and willing to root out the cult.  Assuming one of the three claimants is the cultist.  But they better have a good plan if there's two fakeclaiming townies in that bunch.

Well, actually, I know I'll target Persolus if we kill Cao or Cao if we kill Persolus.  But if bladescape gets lynched, I want to see some more stuff before I decide who to target.

----------


## Persolus

> '*l*o everyone! *I*'m Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round!
> 
> 
> ...*o*n the other hand, you _could_ do so, I just like saying it.
> *N*ow according to google's RNG, my first vote is ... *drumroll* ... *Lady Serpentine*!


I.E. LION
i.e. Leo
i.e. I am half a lover!

@Rogan you were correct, I thought it would generate discussion, and it's given me weird vibes off of JeenLeen? I don't like how insistent the posts were about killing two confirmed townies.

- - - Updated - - -

So JeenLeen.

----------


## CaoimhinTheCape

Yeah, the liars are Persolus and me.  We're the Masons/Lovers, hoping to piggyback off of Wolves not wanting to target Greiger.  We were betting that Wolves just straight up wouldn't risk picking between 3 different people who could be Greiger and have all of us safe from conversion.

Didn't work I guess, now that I'm about to die and Wolves know who the real spartacus Greiger is, but as I said before, none of the three of us should die.


*Votes:*
Lady Serpentine (1): Persolus
JeenLeen (2): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
Persolus (1): Bladescape
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
CaoimhinTheCape (5): Elenna, JeenLeen, Caedorus, Snowblaze, Rogan
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

- - - Updated - - -

I'll be around enough to switch my vote, if we want to avoid Jeen because of the claim.


*Votes:*
JeenLeen (3): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, Persolus
Persolus (1): Bladescape
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (2): Allando, Murska
CaoimhinTheCape (5): Elenna, JeenLeen, Caedorus, Snowblaze, Rogan
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Fleeing Coward

----------


## Elenna

Okay well I guess that answers some questions at least. And presumably blade is the real Greiger. 

Now I have to find another target in the next 1.5 hours good thing its a slow day at work today.
(Yes, I know day ends in 2.5 hours. Ill be offline for the last hour or so of it.)

----------


## Rogan

> I.E. LION
> i.e. Leo
> i.e. I am half a lover!
> 
> @Rogan you were correct, I thought it would generate discussion, and it's given me weird vibes off of JeenLeen? I don't like how insistent the posts were about killing two confirmed townies.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> So JeenLeen.


Good job. And I'm back with *Jeen*, unless you want to counterclaim Caos post.

- - - Updated - - -




> I'll be around enough to switch my vote, if we want to avoid Jeen because of the claim.


I should be around as well.
I don't like this two face claim Jeen did, cause it greatly limits the risk of getting counterclaimed.

----------


## Elenna

> @Rogan you were correct, I thought it would generate discussion, and it's given me weird vibes off of JeenLeen? I don't like how insistent the posts were about killing two confirmed townies.


Can you point me to the Jeen posts youre talking about?

- - - Updated - - -

I do agree that Im this role or this role and dont claim if you have the other one is pretty sketchy.

----------


## Xihirli

> *Xihirli* can you confirm if we have at most one of each role in the OP, or if there might be repeats?


No repeats. Haven't told the wolves any unused roles yet, might if people try to win by abusing the fact that we got more players than I was expecting.

----------


## JeenLeen

Glad I jumped back online at the last moment.

Oh fine.  Jack Atlas claim.
Feel free to kill me if you want to because it's bad if the cult knows who I am.  I wasn't meaning to look sketchy; I just legitimately wanted to limit the Cult's info when it seemed we had the cultist in the bag.

But... Cao and Persolus planning together to test the wolves well.  I can respect that plan.
I'm not sure the Lovers being alive is helpful with them outted and potentially beign recruited N1, so I think I'll actually leave my vote where it is.  But I guess we can trust bladescape at least.

----------


## Elenna

Strong disagree on lynching Cao or Pers. If one of them is converted this night that just means that they cant trust each other, and hopefully they werent planning to trust each other past D1 anyways, especially now that theyve claimed. So their getting converted is essentially like a vanilla townie getting converted. Its definitely not worth losing two people just to avoid that.

----------


## Lady Serpentine

...given there's exactly one wolf to start, wolves cannot fake a lovers claim no matter how much we discussed it. So that happened. 

Out of the people who've been talking and aren't super new... I could see *Book Wombat* trying to fly under the radar. They've got the fewest posts of anyone in the thread, and claimed "middle of the road" on lynchability, which is where a wolf wants to sit: Not important enough to press for information, but not going "Lynch me!"

----------


## Rogan

> ...given there's exactly one wolf to start, wolves cannot fake a lovers claim no matter how much we discussed it. So that happened. 
> 
> Out of the people who've been talking and aren't super new... I could see *Book Wombat* trying to fly under the radar. They've got the fewest posts of anyone in the thread, and claimed "middle of the road" on lynchability, which is where a wolf wants to sit: Not important enough to press for information, but not going "Lynch me!"


That's just typical Book behaviour. Not worth a lynch, in my oppinion. If he continues this play on later days, yeah, but for day 1? It's fine.

----------


## Elenna

You know what, I really dont like Jeens lets just kill the Lovers idea, and also I dont have the energy or motivation to comb through the posts for other suspicious behaviour right now. JeenLeen it is.

----------


## bladescape

You know if you'd just stuck to one person claiming Greiger I was gonna soft claim and then force people off both of us.

But the 3 claims messed with my head.

----------


## Rogan

> You know if you'd just stuck to one person claiming Greiger I was gonna soft claim and then force people off both of us.
> 
> But the 3 claims messed with my head.


I was reminded of this:

----------


## Caedorus

> ...given there's exactly one wolf to start, wolves cannot fake a lovers claim no matter how much we discussed it. So that happened. 
> 
> Out of the people who've been talking and aren't super new... I could see *Book Wombat* trying to fly under the radar. They've got the fewest posts of anyone in the thread, and claimed "middle of the road" on lynchability, which is where a wolf wants to sit: Not important enough to press for information, but not going "Lynch me!"


uh oh uh oh my votee is likely town
JeenLeen is the next biggest wagon
We need to get off Caomhin bc 10 minutes untill eod




> I was reminded of this:


- - - Updated - - -

this did not work for me↑

- - - Updated - - -

...I'm a dunce, misread Xihirli's timer

----------


## Allando

> I am also confused. Hard claim.


We were all recruited by the cult of confusion it seems!

That aside, *I want to apologise for editing my post where I confused Bladescape and Book Wombat - I just realised that that was actually against the edit rules. Sorry!*
I also want to *unvote Bladescape*, but I'm still choosing a new target. I'm debating between FC and Book Wombat (and yes, the genuine article this time) because the "hiding in the background" applies to both of them. For now, I think Book Wombat is the more suspicious one, but not enough-yet.
Other people who haven't claimed yet, let's see;
Me
AvatarVecna
Caedorus
Elenna
Rogan
Snowblaze
Did I miss any claims? I thought there were more claims. Also, any thoughts on whether more people should claim?

----------


## Lady Serpentine

I have not claimed.

----------


## Rogan

> Did I miss any claims? I thought there were more claims. Also, any thoughts on whether more people should claim?


Claims are dangerous. Both for the single cultist, cause they can't claim their real role. And for every townie, cause it will allow the cultist to pick it's targets to gain strong members.

In theory, a mass claim could be a serious problem for the cultist. But I think, Xi disapproves of this tactic and would even give the cultist a save fake claim to help them out.

So, I'm in favor of not claiming unless there is a good reason to do so. If you are the Seer and found the cultist? Of course you claim, so we can get rid of them. If you are up for the lynch and your power is useful for town, but not that good for the cult? You can claim to try and save yourself. If you need to counterclaim someone, go for it. But without a good reason? Stay quiet.

----------


## Allando

> I have not claimed.


Whoops... 
You're not in the players list on Discord though. And I realise now more people are missing off that list?
Sorry if I forgot some people, I'll go and reread the players list in the OP

----------


## Book Wombat

Bloody hell, what a day.
Anyway, if you want a hint at my role it is the most unique of them all! But probably not in the way you are thinking.

- - - Updated - - -

Excluding Rex that is.

----------


## Lady Serpentine

...did you just claim wolf?

----------


## Rogan

> ...did you just claim wolf?


He said not in the way you are thinking, so no.
Also, Bookie, if you imply what I think you do, please don't say no more.

----------


## AvatarVecna

There's somecreal value in mass claiming today but i feel like that's kinda refusing to play the game proper.

----------


## Rogan

> No repeats. Haven't told the wolves any unused roles yet, might if people try to win by abusing the fact that we got more players than I was expecting.





> There's somecreal value in mass claiming today but i feel like that's kinda refusing to play the game proper.


Conidering the quote above, do you still think there's value in mass claiming today?

----------


## AvatarVecna

> Conidering the quote above, do you still think there's value in mass claiming today?


Xihirli: "If you do X, I'll be forced to give the wolves info I wouldn't otherwise give them."

That's an admission that mass-claiming would break the set-up.

----------


## Rogan

> Xihirli: "If you do X, I'll be forced to give the wolves info I wouldn't otherwise give them."
> 
> That's an admission that mass-claiming would break the set-up.


Sure. But since there is an explicit counter, what might be a boring but useful way to play the game would become a significant less useful way. So I'm wondering, do you think that a mass claim would be helpful, but boring? Or actually boring and harmfull, cause our enemy will get even more intel this way.

----------


## Lady Serpentine

Boring but helpful. We can test most of these powers. 

Honestly I considered suggesting it but it's just... Even more boring than stalling.

----------


## AvatarVecna

14 players in this game.

17 roles in this game.

Yusei Fudo (long-term double baner)
Jack Atlas (vig)
Akiza Izinski (town mass beast)
Luna (Mason)
Leo (Mason)
Carly Carmine (Booster)
Greiger (limited self-baner)
Misty (Seer)
Sayer (long-term single voider)
Kalin Kessler (town random beast)
Crow Hogan (vote booster)
MC (public watcher)
Yanagi (role detector)
Blister (Martyr Vortexer)
Martha (effect remover)
Roman Goodwin (Alpha Cultist)
Rex Goodwin (Jester)

2 of those roles (the goodwins) literally cannot win if they honestly claim. They have to lie. That means there are 15 safely-claimable roles, 12-13 of which will be also claimed by townies. It is possible (albeit highly unlikely) that there would be no counter-claims without Xihirli giving the Goodwins safe fake-claim info, but even if that were to occur, that makes their claims testable. Between Misty, MC, and Yanagi we've got the info powers to find the fakers.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, if we're talking unfun ways to lose, this game already has a "ends the game" style jester, and a mass beast.

- - - Updated - - -

May as well give town an unfun path to victory to go with the two unfun paths to defeat.

- - - Updated - - -

For funsies, here's a dumb look at just how poorly this could go:

*Spoiler*
Show



Town-Cult-Dead

N0: Everyone alive. 13-1-0.
D1: Mislynch on Misty. 12-1-1.
N1: Jack targets Yanagi, Akiza targets Leo, Roman targets MC. 11-2-1.
D2: Mislynch on Martha, Jack voted Yanagi. 9-2-3.
N2: Jack targets Carly, Akiza targets Sayer, Roman targets Crow. 8-3-3.
D3: Mislynch on Akiza, Jack votes Carly. Akiza/Leo/Sayer/Carly die. 4-3-7. Oops.

----------


## Rogan

You are both talking like all we need to do is finding the original cultist.
While we are trying to test the claimes, they can recruit new members. By doing so, they can even sabotage our attempts. And they can do this pretty easy, cause they have all the info they need to pick their recruits.

Sure, finding Goodwin fast is useful, since it will limit the number of cultist. But how fast can we realy do this, while working against an enemy who knows everything? Well... I don't have the time to figure out all the different ways this could go well or totaly wrong.

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## AvatarVecna

> You are both talking like all we need to do is finding the original cultist.
> While we are trying to test the claimes, they can recruit new members. By doing so, they can even sabotage our attempts. And they can do this pretty easy, cause they have all the info they need to pick their recruits.
> 
> Sure, finding Goodwin fast is useful, since it will limit the number of cultist. But how fast can we realy do this, while working against an enemy who knows everything? Well... I don't have the time to figure out all the different ways this could go well or totaly wrong.


The potential for sabotage makes it even more important that we start early, to increase the amount of time we can trust people's contributions to solving. We can't do the usual thing where we all turtle until LYLO and claim, that's a recipe for losing.

- - - Updated - - -

A third recipe for losing, I should say.

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## Caedorus

Honestly, no, no massclaiming, please, it just breaks the game. If the game isn't fun everyone loses, new house rule.

Won't be around for eod, sleep now, 6 mins past midnight here

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## Rogan

> The potential for sabotage makes it even more important that we start early, to increase the amount of time we can trust people's contributions to solving. We can't do the usual thing where we all turtle until LYLO and claim, that's a recipe for losing.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> A third recipe for losing, I should say.


A mass claim will make it significantly more easier to pick the right targets for a sabotage.
Without claims, the Cultist has to recruit blindly. They might get lucky or they might get someone weak.
Of course, there is also a huge amount of wine in play. Lets say the targeted mass beast? We need to lynch them sooner than later, or they can take half the playerbase out in one strike. So, do you recruit them for their pretty strong anti-town power? Or do you go after someone else, who might live longer?

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## AvatarVecna

> A mass claim will make it significantly more easier to pick the right targets for a sabotage.
> Without claims, the Cultist has to recruit blindly. They might get lucky or they might get someone weak.
> Of course, there is also a huge amount of wine in play. Lets say the targeted mass beast? We need to lynch them sooner than later, or they can take half the playerbase out in one strike. So, do you recruit them for their pretty strong anti-town power? Or do you go after someone else, who might live longer?


All roles in the game are designed to be highly useful conversions. The difference between a lucky or unlucky conversion is barely worth mentioning. Vig/Mass Beast/Random Beast/Voider/Booster are all powerful tools in the hands of cultist. Double Baner/Seer/Watcher/Role Detector need to be kept out of townie hands. Getting at least one mason means instead of two townies against you, it's one with you and the other being fed misinformation by their trusted confidant. Blister and Martha are kinda meh conversions IMO, Greiger should be cult-proof unless they're stupid, and Rex conversion ends the game with cult losing. That's 4 roles that cultist would rather not convert - two of which are meh, one of which is probably a bad target, and one of which is definitely a bad target. Let's say four three are in the game, but we don't mass-claim. We lynch somebody today, townie, it's now 12-1-1. There's a 2 outta 3 chance that completely random culting gets a good target instead of meh/bad one.

Mass claiming does not make the cultist that much more accurate, but the gains for town are massive.

- - - Updated - - -

Naturally, the odds for random-culting going in cultist's favor go up if any of those four roles isn't in the game.

- - - Updated - - -

It also needs be said: one of the actually-bad choices is already outed (assuming it's honest, which it kinda has to be, given how things went). If the reason to not mass claim is that cult might get unlucky and target one of their bad choices, that pool is already smaller, no matter how many of those 4 are in the game.

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## Elenna

The problem is, the tradeoff between being able to test claims versus giving the cultist better options for conversions depends a lot on how testable the cultist's fakeclaim is, which we can't possibly know. I do see the advantages of mass claiming, for sure, but I also think AV is underestimating the difference between converting a vig or mass beast, versus converting a watcher or lover (especially since the lovers know perfectly well that the other might be converted).
(Also, it's definitely the boring strategy.)

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## Xihirli

*End Of Main Phase One*

I shall now total the votes!

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## Xihirli

*Turn One: Battle Phase*

Jack looked down from the helicopter as he approached the satellite. 
"I'm coming, Yusei. And before I take you down, I'll destroy every last one of those Dark Signers!"
The driver turned back at him with a grin.
"You see, Jack, I was just thinking about that."
"What? Who are you?"
"Merely a concerned citizen... who doesn't care for either of the team of Signers muscling in on my territory."
"What?" Jack demanded. 
"How well do you do in water? As a psychic duelist, I envision myself doing just fine." 
Sayer, leader of the Arcadia movement, dipped the helicopter down. Jack felt his grip loosening as he tumbled, and the world went black.

He woke up with a splash. In a panic, he still remembered to blow out a bit of his precious air and watch the bubbles to find out which way was up. His muscles were on fire from the fall, but he just barely managed to surface. If he could just spot... there! The half-bridge that, according to rumors around the satellite, had been built by a man who thought he could get EVERYONE out of the satellite slums. No one knew quite what happened to him. Jack was pretty sure he'd been hauled to the Facility by Sector Security. The bridge had never been finished, but... there! He could see it from here, he could make it! He could...
His muscles were awfully slow...

JeenLeen was Jack Atlas, on Team 5Ds. 

*Spoiler: Player List*
Show


AvatarVecna
Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze
Persolus
Allando
Caedorus
Bladescape
Book Wombat
Elenna
Murska
Lady Serpentine
JeenLeen Jack Atlas
Fleeing Coward


*Turn One, Main Phase 2*

"Martha!" Crow called, leading a group of Satellite kids into Martha's safe house. 
"Yes, Crow? Wait, behind you!"
Crow turned to see on the hill a large man in a mother of a big duel runner with drills all over. He didn't have to get close to see the telltale purple glow of the Dark Signer's mark on the duelist's arm. 
"Martha, get the kids out of here." Crow got on his duel runner and revved up to the Dark Signer.
"Crow, you're not a signer!"
"So what, I should just leave these kids to him? No chance! Come on, Dark Signer, let's see if you know how to duel!"

*Please select targets, Main Phase 2 shall last roughly ~24 hours.*

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## Snowblaze

Well, that was a mess. Sorry Jeen. 

Thoughts to come when I'm actually awake.

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## Fleeing Coward

Sorry I'm late, I may have completely forgotten that I signed up for this...

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## Snowblaze

Good news, at least, is we have three confirmed not-starting-cultists in bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape and Persolus. That's... something, I guess?


Not cult, for now: bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape, Persolus 
Townleans: Elenna, Lady Serpentine 
I am probably getting these slots confused with each other but I think they've both been vaguely towny: Allando, Caedorus 
Null: AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, Fleeing Coward
Vague wolflean from earlygame but I'd need to reread to figure out if that's actually valid: Rogan
Wolflean: Murska

I think. Need to go back through stuff to solidify that.

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## Allando

> Good news, at least, is we have three confirmed not-starting-cultists in bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape and Persolus. That's... something, I guess?
> 
> 
> Not cult, for now: bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape, Persolus 
> Townleans: Elenna, Lady Serpentine 
> I am probably getting these slots confused with each other but I think they've both been vaguely towny: Allando, Caedorus 
> Null: AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, Fleeing Coward
> Vague wolflean from earlygame but I'd need to reread to figure out if that's actually valid: Rogan
> Wolflean: Murska
> ...


Could you elaborate on your wolf leans?
Also, I'm pretty sure FC isn't the wolf,  because the game started without them.

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## Snowblaze

> Could you elaborate on your wolf leans?
> Also, I'm pretty sure FC isn't the wolf,  because the game started without them.


Eh, maybe but also I'd rather not read into that sort of thing.

The Rogan thing is vague gut and pretty much nothing else until I've reread; Murska is because I felt like his question earlier could be fishing for good conversion targets and his policy of "kill the Greiger claims" despite all of them being town. 

...though then again he made an unforced claim which was a pretty large risk for a wolf to take. That does poke a hole in my theory.

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## Caedorus

You only missed the most exiting d1 in Mafia history!
Please ignore everyone trying to advocate massclaiming, I want to play WW.
I suggest keeping the "night" quiet.

- - - Updated - - -




> Sorry I'm late, I may have completely forgotten that I signed up for this...


this is what I was replying to

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## Allando

FC, once you've read up could I have your reads, or do you want to wait till the next main phase?

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## Fleeing Coward

After a quick skim through, I would have personally have lynched Caedorus or Book Wombat.
Lady Serpentine and Rogan are likely town.
Lynch Murska around the day 4 mark cause he'd probably be converted by then if he's still alive.

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## Xihirli

*End of M2*

Narration to follow.

----------


## Xihirli

With the satellite glowing with the lines of the Earthbound Immortals, our heroes can be forgiven for focusing on saving those around them instead of following the pattern... the web, if you will.
Rex Goodwin, however, is not our hero. 
He walked right on the Earthbound Geoglyphs of the sign of the spider, smiling as he stepped up to none other than Roman Goodwin, his brother.
*"I see the mark I entrusted you with is still with you."*
"Yes... I still remember the day you gave it to me. Doctor Fudo built the weapon that finally destroyed the Sacred Beasts based on the energy emitting from your mark... but then something dark in you awakened..."
_Brother!_ Roman's words echoed in Rex's mind. *The Sign I am blessed with... I am beginning to be claimed by a darker power, awakened by Fudo's experiments! If it fully claims me, my Sign will be corrupted, and I shall become the worlds new conqueror! I need you to take my Sign. When we next meet, I fear I will be fully a creature of darkness please, Rex*
I took your mark, and I safeguarded it just as you asked, Roman. But then I realized Light and Darkness, they are not opposites. They are destined to be brought together, for the curtain to pull back and reveal a new world!
*Brother what has happened to you?*
I can finally see everything clearly, brother! The world has never recovered from the awakening of the Sacred Beasts because we were trying to restore what we had. That was folly. Instead, with the powers of Light and Darkness I shall remake a new world in my image! Now, brother, I challenge you to a duel!
*The darkness has claimed me, but not you, Rex. It seems as though you have chosen it and I will have to demonstrate that the Earthbound Immortals cannot be controlled! Duel!*

Akiza Izinksi had been asked to come to the Satellite by Yusei when hed learned of the Dark Signers. She had never expected to come face-to-face with Sayer.  
What are you doing here?
I know you got it into your head that Ive tried to use you, Akiza, but I promise Ive always had your best interests at heart. These Dark Signers its very bad business. Im here to help you, Akiza. I just need you to let me guide you, as you once did.
Your GUIDANCE. You told me that everyone was my enemy, that they all hated me. And then Yusei, no matter how much I hurt him over our duel, never lost faith in me. You told me the world would only see me as a monster, but Yusei showed me I didnt have to see myself as one.
Akiza, if you want to defeat the Dark Signers, youll need me to whats that? An unearthly glow of red and purple was filling each of the sen geoglyphs about the Satellite. The red bled into the purple, burning it away with the light of the Crimson Dragon except corrupted. Changed. Darker and harsher. And moving?

Yusei was riding on the Giant Geoglyph, following along the shape of the Giants Arm when Kalins runner rode in next to him, the unmistakable visage of the once-leader of Team Satisfaction grinning at him.
Kalin, whats gotten into you?
Gotten into ME, Yusei. I heard you moved heaven and earth to track down Jack when he left the satellite. Where were you when Sector Security dragged me to the Facility? What happened to your promise to stay by my side, forever?
I did go to the Facility, Kalin. How do you think I got this mark?" Yusei drove nearer so Kalin could see the Sector Security Brand on his face. You werent there. I thought I thought you were dead.
"How convenient, Yusei! No need to worry about your old friend Kalin! No need to keep to the code we swore to each other as Team Satisfaction! Now Im back and youre not gonna like me much! Duel!"
Kalin drew first. "Ill just set two cards face-down, Yusei! Ill pass it to you, but Ill be starting your turn! First, I activate Fires of Doomsday! This card summons two Doomsday Tokens. These Tokens can only be Tributed for a Tribute Summon of a Dark-Attribute monster. Next I activate Escalation of Infernity! This allows me to Tribute Summon one Dark Monster on your turn, but after I summon it I have to discard my entire hand! Now, Yusei, bear witness! The dead and the living...The moment they meet at zero, above the cage of eternity, the great emperor comes out! Emerge, Earthbound Immortal Ccapac Apu!"
He threw a card onto his runners duel pad, but instead of summoning a monster, his runner spun out and threw Kalin to the ground. 
Kalin! Yusei stopped his runner and ran to his friend, even as the geoglyph under his feet became blood-red and started shifting along the ground away from him. 

Crow was the one who began his duel. I dont know what you Dark Signers think youre doing here, but everyone here is my family, and Im not gonna let you hurt them!
Ah a home to fight for. I once had the same thing, duelist. But it was taken now my heart is only able to sustain fury and vengeance, with no thoughts to saving anything anymore.
Its a good thing Im here then! And I brought some friends!
Crow played a continuous spell that let him summon out a weaker blackwing every time he played one from his hand. 
I summon Blackwing - Bora the Spear! And as I always say, Birds of a Feather, Flock Together, so Ill also summon Blackwing - Gale the Whirlwind and Blackwing - Blizzard the Far North from my hand! And since Blizzard is a tuner monster, I can use it to synchro summon Blackwing Armed Wing wth Bora the Spear! Now youre facing down Gale the Whirlwind and Bora the Spear. What do you say to that, Dark Signer?
I say what? The Dark Signer looked down to the Orca-Sign mark on his arm. It was bleeding with red light. 

Brother, you have no idea the powers I now command! I discard Earthbound Immortal Wiraqocha Rasca to activate the effect of Ascator, Dawnwalker! I summon him from my hand, and Fire Ant Ascator from my deck! And Fire Ant Ascator is a tuner! But before I move onto Synchro Summoning, I discard Earthbound Linewalker to summon Supay, Duskwalker from my hand, and Underworld Fiend Supay from my deck! Supay is also a tuner! I double Synchro Summon! Sun Dragon Inti and Moon Dragon Quilla! With the powers of the moon and the sun, you can do nothing but quake against me, Roman!
*Well see, Rex. Its my turn I draw, and activate Offerings to the Immortals! This allows me to Tribute Summon an Earthbound Immortal using one Synchro Monster on either players field. So now I tribute Sun Dragon Inti! O souls of the dead who lurk in my light of destiny! Grant me the power to lead the dark truth in this protean world! Appear now, Earthbound Immortal Uru!*
A dark, terrible spider came into being from the shadows Rex merely grinned.
*Now, Earthound Immortal Uru, attack and destroy Moon Dragon Quilla!
*One massive spider leg came down and smashed Moon Dragon Quilla into dust. Rexs Life Points went down by 500, but he seemed unconcerned. 
When you destroy Moon Dragon Quilla, she gives me life points equal to her attack points and summons from my graveyard Sun Dragon Inti! And Sun Dragon Inti has the same attack points as Uru. Now, Sun Dragon Inti, attack!
*Brother, theyll both be destroyed!
*Indeed! In a clash of fire and darkness, the dragon and spider both shattered.
When Sun Dragon Inti is destroyed, you take damage equal to his attack points and he summons Moon Dragon Quilla from my graveyard!
*What!?*
Now Moon Dragon Quilla, attack with the reflection of your brothers power! Lunar Eclipse attack!
*"But the moon doesnt reflect the suns light during a"*
Moon Dragon Quilla breathed silvery fire all over Roman, and he was no more.

The seven Earthbound Geoglyphs  the Giant, Spider, Hummingbird, Lizard, Monkey, Orca, and Condor  were moving about the Sattelite, slithering together and gathering into one blood-red shape: That of a serpent. 

The King and the Devil, here and now shall become as one. Savage soul! Lift up the very cries of Creation itself! Behold as the stars high above in the sky, and the fire deep down below in the earth collide in a cosmic explosion! Advent, Earthbound God Red Nova!


*Spoiler: Rex Goodwin*
Show



*Spoiler: Earthbound God Red Nova*
Show






I was too late. Kalin, I was too late for you. Now Im too late for everyone else. Im sorry. Cradling the broken body of Kalin Kessler, Yusei Fudo wept.

I uh... hope you all liked turn one. 

*Yu-Gi-Oh! 5Ds ends in victory for Rogan, AKA Rex Goodwin!
*
*Spoiler: Players/Roles*
Show


Rex Goodwin: Rogan

Roman Goodwin: Elenna

Kalin Kessler: Book Wombat

Martha: Caedorus

Misty: Allando

Sayer: Fleeing Coward

Akiza: Snowblaze

Luna: Persolus
Leo: Caoimhin

Greiger: Bladescape

Announcer: AvatarVecna

Crow Hogan: Lady Serpentine 

Jack Atlas: JeenLeen

Carly Carmine: Murska

----------


## Elenna

welp that was certainly a choice that I made.  :Small Tongue:  I considered converting Snow instead, apparently I should have gone with that lol

----------


## Book Wombat

Pffft. 
_*lying in puddle of blood*_

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## flat_footed

Jeez guys, I turn away for five minutes and this is what you do?  :Small Tongue:

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## Xihirli

I mean, I knew this was a possibility when I designed the roles so of course I was prepared for it. 
Just I thought it would be unlikely to happen so early.

----------


## Batcathat

Between this and Among Us, there's a weird pattern forming with games narrated by Xi that I'm not in ending super quickly.  :Small Confused: 

On the plus side: no one has to spend the holidays worried about being lynched or converted. (Though I suppose that's a bit like saying we wouldn't have to worry about climate change if we blew up the Earth...)

----------


## Xihirli

Merry Christmas, everyone!

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## Elenna

> Between this and Among Us, there's a weird pattern forming with games narrated by Xi that I'm not in ending super quickly. 
> 
> On the plus side: no one has to spend the holidays worried about being lynched or converted. (Though I suppose that's a bit like saying we wouldn't have to worry about climate change if we blew up the Earth...)


I mean, half the reason I signed up is because I figured Id have plenty of time since Im taking most of the next two week off work  :Small Tongue: 
Oh well, guess Ill have more time to play video games! (Or, yknow, do the mountain of productive stuff Ive been putting offnah)

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## Allando

> Merry Christmas, everyone!


Merry Christmas too! And well played everyone!

- - - Updated - - -




> (Though I suppose that's a bit like saying we wouldn't have to worry about climate change if we blew up the Earth...)


Ok, can be arranged...

----------


## Snowblaze

That was slightly anticlimactic. Good game and Merry Christmas, everyone!

Guess I can claim partial credit for being right on Rogan being not-town, despite misclearing Elenna (my D1 townleans are not particularly accurate, I'm learning). 

And I will admit I was hoping to be converted so my power would actually be pro-my-alignment. Though having Xihirli try to tempt me into using it was at least fun.

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## Persolus

Thank you Xihirli! That was very fun, if a lot shorter than expected.

Also i would like to state for the record that I did not state a single falsehood! Yes, I was "Grieger" - i was the fictional, misspelled role which does nothing, and if you check the Discord you will see that, in fact, it does say "You are Grieger."

Thank you Cao for going along with it! That was a wild ride.

----------


## Allando

> i was the fictional, misspelled role


Sorry for the misspelling...  :Small Eek:

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## JeenLeen

In a sense, we did kill everyone who fakeclaimed D1.
This was quite an amusing game.

----------

